The European Union election could lead to a sharp turn in electric car policy

After lengthy negotiations, EU member states reached a historic agreement in 2022: from January 1, 2035, the only new cars in the bloc that have no tailpipe CO2 emissions can be sold.

So after a little more than a decade, there will be no more petrol and diesel cars in showrooms with sales limited to battery electric or hydrogen powered vehicles.

Right-wing reluctance

Abolishing the 2035 deadline has become a rallying cry for Europe’s right-wing parties.

The European car industry is a major employer and a leader in conventional cars but lags far behind Chinese upstarts in the development of electric vehicles, particularly at lower prices.

The ECR parliamentary group, which includes Italy’s Brothers and Spain’s VOX, still rejects the need to move to electric vehicles.

“We are firm in our belief that the internal combustion engine, a testament to the power of European creativity and ingenuity, can remain commercially viable for years to come by adopting cutting-edge technology and investing in ground-breaking research on alternative low-emission fuels,” its election manifesto reads. .

Another right-wing group in the European Parliament, Identity and Democracy, which includes France’s RN and Germany’s AfD, has taken aim at expensive electric vehicles hurting consumers, calling the impending ban a discriminatory and socially exclusionary move.

The outgoing majority party, the centre-right European People’s Party, is divided.

The two German parties in the bloc, the CDU and the CSU, want to scrap the 2035 deadline to benefit from “sophisticated German internal combustion engine technology”.

It did not feature in the EPP manifesto because it was the head of their list, outgoing Commission chief Ursula von der Leyen, who negotiated the deadline as part of the EU “green deal”.

“It would be surprising if the Commission that implemented the Green Deal went back on it, but there are risks to its implementation,” said Diane Strauss at the Transport and Environment NGO.

Populist or progressive?

The automobile industry, which employs 12 million people in Europe, is on the way to switch to electric vehicles.

The number of fully electric models available has increased and their share of the market rose to 13 percent at the end of last year, even if growth is flagging slightly.

But Renault CEO Luca Di Maio, head of European car lobby group ACEA, recently signaled that a delay would be welcome.

“I hope the ban will come into effect after a while because I think we won’t be able to do it without damaging the entire auto industry and value chain in Europe,” he told AFP in February.

Stellantis chief Carlos Tavares admitted earlier this year that Europe’s second-largest carmaker was watching the European and US elections closely.

He said the shift to electric vehicles would accelerate if “radical progressives” win office but slow if “populists” take the polls.

Strauss of Transport and Environment said the success of the 2035 deadline depends on several factors such as sufficient deployment of charging stations as well as cost reductions through subsidized leasing programs.

“A parliament that is very opposed to electromobility can slow down the implementation of all the factors necessary for the success of the effort,” she said, citing subsidies as an example.

Options in 2026?

A review of progress towards electrification is already planned for 2026. While it does not mean there will be another vote on the 2035 deadline, the review could determine that progress is behind schedule and strengthen the hand of those who argue for German-like alternatives. Transport Minister Volker Wiesing who has called for synthetic fuels to be allowed.

Synthetic fuels, or e-fuels as they are also known, are currently energy-intensive and expensive to produce but are being pursued as a means of reducing the aviation industry’s carbon footprint.

However, automakers such as Porsche, Stellenbosch and Renault have looked to them for cars because they can be used in existing motors.

Skeptics point to difficulties in making e-fuels completely carbon neutral and that they are less efficient than battery electric vehicles.

Date of first publication: 08 May 2024, 06:53 AM IST