Tamil Nadu battleground: Without a major ally, will the Modi factor work for the BJP?

Tamil Nadu is becoming the second state after Karnataka from which the BJP hopes to make a breakthrough in the south. In the race for 39 seats, the BJP is counting on Prime Minister Narendra Modi to weaken the Dravidian politics that has dominated the state for decades. Over the past few months, Prime Minister Modi has vigorously promoted Tamil history and culture through various forums, besides holding numerous rallies in the state and its capital, Chennai.

“Prime Minister Modi sees an undercurrent that we don’t see,” political strategist Amitabh Tiwari told New Delhi TV’s “Battle Ground” hosted by editor-in-chief Sanjay Pujaria.

Even so, “the task ahead remains daunting,” he said. “The advantages that the BJP enjoys in other parts of the country, the DMK enjoys here.” It is impossible for the BJP to make progress without eroding the DMK’s vote share. It is counting on the Prime Minister’s charisma to win votes,” he added.

The ruling DMK is benevolent. Party spokesperson Manuraj Sundaram said: “The Prime Minister does enjoy high profile in the media space and among the common people… We are happy that the Prime Minister visits Tamil Nadu regularly.”

However, he made two key points. First, “there is now a tendency to distrust Delhi” – one department has pointed to the consequences of unequal inflows. There were also considerable concerns about the demarcation exercise, which would inevitably result in southern states being less represented in Congress than northern states, given the controlled populations of the South.

Second, Tamil Nadu is a state that “has always been dominated by a certain kind of politics — Dravidian or socialist politics, with a strong sense of identity,” Mr. Sundaram said.

Last year, the AIADMK severed its short-lived alliance with the BJP, which was critical of the prime minister’s efforts to defend the southern state.

Party spokesperson Apsara Reddy said: “He is the prime minister of the country and should treat states equally.”

She said the Prime Minister’s approach was “seasonal”. “When the polls come out, he will come here.” You don’t become a Tamil by reciting a few lines of Tirukular. This does not translate into larger seats or vote share,” she added.

The AIADMK, which formed an alliance with the BJP after the death of former chief minister J Jayalalithaa, broke up last year over a series of differences, the most significant of which were BJP president K Annamalai’s derogatory remarks about the party.

Without a key ally, the BJP joined hands with Ramadoss-led Janata Party, giving the party a chance to gain votes in Vaniyar constituency, one of several constituencies in northern Tamil Nadu Dominate. More importantly, it helps the BJP balance its perception as a party of upper castes, especially Brahmins.

The party is contesting 23 of the 39 Lok Sabha seats in the state. Among the remaining parties, PMK is competing against 10 or smaller parties.

Educationist Sandeep Shastri said the BJP is not hoping to win many seats. What the party hopes is to occupy the position of the DMK’s main challenger. “When Prime Minister Modi was asked if 2029 is important, he said I am thinking of 2047. I think he is thinking of Tamil Nadu because the long-term goal is very important for them,” he added.

Mr. Tiwari, however, pointed to the large number of swing votes, which he said was the BJP’s target. He added that the party hopes young voters will bring it votes.

Narayanan Thirupathy, president of the Bharatiya Janata Party, agreed. “The youth vote will be crucial,” he said, and the shift will “come from the DMK and the AIADMK”.

“We need to understand that without the (ally) Congress, DMK’s support would not have gone beyond 15-16 per cent (vote share). DMK is not as big a party as we thought,” he added.