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As more space debris falls, a new study shows how seismic monitors can better track incoming objects by tuning in to sonic booms.
the scientist Reports on Thursday said the seismic readings of the sonic boom were produced when discarded modules were discarded. Chinese Crew compartment re-entry Southern California In 2024, they located the object’s path nearly 20 miles (30 kilometers) further south than radar predicted from orbit.
They say using this method to track uncontrolled objects falling at supersonic speeds could help recovery teams find any surviving debris more quickly – crucial if the debris is dangerous.
“The problem now is how well can we track objects in space,” said lead researcher Benjamin Fernando of Johns Hopkins University. “But once it actually breaks up in the atmosphere, it becomes very difficult to track.”
His team’s findings were published in the journal sciencefocusing on only one fragmentation event. But researchers have used publicly available data from the Seismic Network to track dozens of other reentry events, including debris from three failed test flights of SpaceX’s Starship in Texas.
Scientists and others are increasingly concerned that falling space debris could hit flying aircraft.
Fernando said there are “more satellites in orbit than there were 10 years ago,” including SpaceX’s Starlinks and other companies’ internet satellites. “Unfortunately, we don’t have any other information to say other than what the companies say is that when they disband, they completely burn up in the atmosphere.”
Fernando, who usually studies earthquakes on the moon and Mars, teamed up with Constantinos Charalambos of Imperial College London the day after Chinese debris streaked across California skies in 2024. Over time, they collected data from more than 120 seismometers that captured the reentry sonic boom and used the data to map the object’s suspected path.
Ever since the Shenzhou 15 capsule carrying three Chinese astronauts returned from the Chinese space station in 2023 broke away, China’s runaway capsules have been left to rot in orbit. The 1.5-ton (1.36-ton) capsule – which measured more than 3 feet (1 meter) – broke into numerous small fragments as it plunged into the atmosphere, causing multiple sonic booms. Fernando said that in addition to trying to track the whereabouts of objects, the seismic readings also provide a sense of the cascading shattering.
Fernando acknowledged that with no reports of debris on the ground, it’s impossible to know how close his team’s predictions are to the actual path.
The goal is to determine the speed and direction of incoming space debris and its fragments within minutes or even seconds. In remote areas such as the South Pacific, nuclear explosion monitoring stations may track sonic booms to fine-tune descent paths. NASA plans to abandon the International Space Station within five years. SpaceX is working on deorbiting vehicles to ensure controlled access.
Fernando hopes to eventually release a catalog of seismically tracked objects entering space, while also improving future calculations by accounting for the effects of wind on falling debris.
Chris Carr of Los Alamos National Laboratory, who was not involved in the study, said in a companion article in Science that further research is needed to shorten the time between an object’s final fall and the determination of its path.
For now, Carr said, the new method “can quickly identify debris fall zones, which is critical information as satellites in Earth orbit are expected to become increasingly crowded, leading to an influx of more space debris.”
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