The Arctic could face an almost ice-free summer 10 years earlier than predicted
New Delhi:
New research finds that the Arctic could experience nearly ice-free summers a decade earlier than previously predicted under all emissions scenarios.
Previous predictions focused on when the region would be ice-free for a month or more, researchers said. Greenhouse gas emissions are the main cause, they say.
Previous research has found that by mid-century, the Arctic is likely to be ice-free for a full month in September and sea ice extent will be at a minimum, while by the end of the century, the ice-free season may last for several months. Within a year.
In the study, published in the journal Nature Reviews Earth & Environment, a team from the University of Colorado Boulder predicted that the Arctic Ocean could become ice-free for the first time in one day in late August or early September. 2020s and 2030s.
The researchers explained that the “ice-free” threshold does not literally mean “zero ice”, but refers to an ocean ice area of less than 1 million square kilometers, less than 20% of the seasonal minimum ice cover in the 1980s. In recent years, it has been recorded that the Arctic Ocean’s sea ice extent reached a minimum of about 3.3 million square kilometers in September.
“This will transform the Arctic into a completely different environment, from a white summer Arctic to a blue Arctic. So even if ice-free conditions are inevitable, we still need to keep emissions as low as possible to avoid long-term ice-free conditions ” said lead author Alexandra Jahn, associate professor of atmospheric and oceanic sciences at the University of Colorado Boulder.
In this study, researchers analyzed existing literature on sea ice prediction. They also analyzed sea ice cover data from computational climate models to assess how the Arctic might change on a day-to-day basis in the future.
They found that the first ice-free day in the Arctic was on average four years earlier than the monthly average, but could be up to 18 years earlier.
Findings about declining sea ice have major implications for Arctic animals that depend on sea ice for survival, including seals and polar bears. Additionally, researchers warn that as oceans continue to warm, non-native fish may also enter the ocean.
They also say that as sea ice retreats, waves may become larger, causing coastal erosion and endangering the lives of people living near these areas.
However, the researchers also said Arctic sea ice is elastic and can recover quickly if the atmosphere cools.
“Unlike Greenland’s ice sheet, which took thousands of years to form, even if we melted all Arctic sea ice, if we could figure out how to recycle carbon dioxide from the atmosphere in the future to reverse warming, the sea ice would come back within a decade,” ” Young said.
(Except for the headline, this story has not been edited by NDTV staff and is published from a syndicated feed.)
