Hurdle Landfall made in northern parts UK In the morning of Monday, 4 August 2025, in the afternoon received intense rain after severe winds. Meteorological Office Many amber weather warnings issued Scotland And yellow alerts for parts of Northern Ireland And northern England.
Affected area 20 mm -40 mm can expect rainfall, some areas of Scotland can be potentially obtained up to 80 mm. The wind speed in exposed and high areas can reach 80mph-90mph, while scotland is an forecast of a 50MPH-60Mph gust for most of the Scotland.
The defined characteristics of the storm have unusually strong winds for August, a time usually lower for severe wind incidence. Odd seasonal time has increased the risk to the public, as more people are out, travel for holidays or live in camps. In addition, trees live in full leaf, which makes them more likely to bring them down by high winds.
Officers expect significant disruption to transport and power networks, roughly caused by falling trees. This has been outlined by recent research showing a large scale risk Power outage During summer winds. Large amounts of debris on the ground from trees can also block drainage systems and contribute to localized floods.
Constant strong winds will combine with a period of heavy rainfall for the period of amber alert, which is ending at 23:00. This will create difficult situations for emergency employees and prevent access to affected places if the roads are blocked, potentially prolonging the trip and disruptions in the power network.
Is this a distinctive of summer months?
Storm Floris bears all hallmarks of a classic middle-ahead of storm. They develop due to rapid temperature contradictions between northern and southern. Atlantic Ocean And intense under the influence of a strong jet stream. It is an origin of the rapid wind in the atmosphere that spreads to the Atlantic and often storms Britain.
Such a situation is uncommon for the summer months, when warm Atlantic sea temperatures usually weaken these temperature gradients and transfer them to the north to the north, close to the polar regions. However, it is not uncommon for such storms to be in August.
Remarkable people in the last five years include Hurricane Ellen, who damaged the large -scale power distribution infrastructure in Ireland and led the Irish Meteorological Service for the production of red and amber weather warnings for the southern parts of Ireland. In August, the previous storms canceled the Board’s Music Festival in Cornwall in 2019 and closed two phases of Leeds Festival in 2024.
Floris is classified as a Shapiro-Kesar cyclone, which is distinguished by a warm core of a type that surrounds its north, west and south side. This structure appears in the way the forehead system of the storm wraps around its center, making a characteristic comma-shape in the clouds around the cyclone center. Such storms are responsible for a significant number of Britain’s most harmful air incidence.
These cyclones often have strong pressure gradients and strong low-level airflows, especially an air stream known as a cold jet, or cold conveyor belt, which can produce severe surface winds. In some cases, they can also produce a sting jet, a narrow stream of air that descends rapidly from 5 km above the land surface, distributes acute, harmful gusts.
Fortunately, satellite imagery suggests that Storm Floris is unlikely to produce sting jet. However, cold jet alone can still significantly increase the wind speed, which can cause widespread disruption.
These types of storms can also produce acute rainfall with their frontal borders, as seen with the storm fluoris. The hot summer temperature allows the atmosphere to keep the atmosphere more moisture, which increases the chances of heavy fall. In addition, the heat contributes to a more unstable environment, encouraging the strong convection of the air that can cause extremely heavy and local rain.
Future Floris
Research shows that Climate change The characteristics of storms such as fluoris will affect, although not all aspects will be equally affected. Hot temperatures wet future storms, as an increase in atmospheric moisture and convection activity increases rain, especially with frontal systems. However, the estimates of the air are more uncertain.
Climate models typically suggest slight intensity of winter storms in the UK and a decrease in the intensity of summer storms, meaning that systems such as fluoris may be less common. These estimates are largely associated with the expected changes in Atlantic temperature gradients and the behavior of jet stream.
That said, most long-term climate estimates depend on relatively thick-resolution models, which often fail to capture the major features that drive the intensity of the storm. These include Gulf stream (a warm Atlantic Ocean current) and extreme wind drivers, including cold jets and sting jets.
A high-resolution model, such as a real-time forecast for storm fluoris, predicts a more intense winter windestom in a warm climate. Most of this intensity is associated with strong cold jets and potential growth in storms that produce sting jets.
Many powerful summer and autumn storms occur in Britain from tropical cyclones such as storms, as seen in 2017 with the Hurricane Offia. These systems are poorly represented in low-resolution climate models, yet they contribute significantly to Europe’s most extreme winds.
While there is no tropical origin of the store fluoris, different types of storms can affect northern Europe at this time of the year. The complexity of assessing their risks is an area of ongoing research.
Colin Manning is a postdotoral research associate at Climate Science at the University of Newcastle.
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