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It’s one of the worst nightmares epidemiologists face: that a bird flu virus spreading in poultry farms around the world could jump to human hosts.
Now, researchers in India have created modeling to estimate how long authorities will have to contain such a mutated virus before it causes another pandemic. Answer? About two days.
Europe is watching unprecedented spread The outbreak, caused by highly pathogenic avian influenza viruses, led to the culling of millions of farm birds, disrupting food supplies and prices.
While human infection has been rare, researchers have expressed concern that potential mutations in the bird flu virus could make it a top candidate to cause future pandemics.
Researchers at Ashoka University have developed a computer simulation to assess how H5N1 After a virus spreads from birds to humans, an outbreak can begin, spread, and be controlled in a population.
The researchers used a computer model called BharatSim, which simulates how people interact with each other in homes, workplaces and markets, to simulate how a virus might spread in real life.
They modeled the interactions of about 10,000 people in Namakkal district in southern India, a major poultry hub with more than 1,600 poultry farms and a potential location where the virus could spread to humans.
In the simulation, the virus first spreads from birds to people who work on a medium-sized farm or wet market. These primary contacts infect their family members, who create secondary contacts who spread it to tertiary contacts through extensive interactions.
The researchers also simulated various interventions to stop the spread of the virus such as culling birds, isolating infected people and targeted vaccination campaigns.
Culling birds can reduce transmission of the virus, but only if done within 10 days of an outbreak being detected, before peak infection spread in the bird population.
The researchers found that a late kill would dramatically increase the risk of human infection.
“The sooner the birds are killed, the greater the chance that the spread can be stopped,” he said.
The simulations found that quarantine was the most effective step to control human-to-human spread, but only when the number of infected people was less than two.
Assuming that people move between their homes and workplaces or schools every 12 hours, researchers estimate that the virus could start spreading to tertiary contacts after only two days.
And once the virus begins to spread in the community, the outbreak could spiral out of control.
“Control measures make the most difference early in the outbreak,” the researchers said. “Once community transmission begins, public health measures, such as lockdowns, mandatory masking and mass vaccination campaigns, are the only options left.”
Researchers hope the computer models will be improved as more information is gathered about the virus and its spread.
“Our simulations can be run in real time, responding to initial reports of cases,” they wrote.