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Several disturbing incidents have come to light, including the sudden stopping of a passenger train and the explosion of explosives under another train. poland Allegation of deploying 10,000 soldiers Russia for a campaign of sabotage Europe,
In November, a train carrying about 500 people in Eastern poland A broken overhead line caused a sudden stop, windows were broken and the track was damaged.
Elsewhere, an explosive was detonated beneath a passing goods train. Despite no injuries or major damage, poland Russian intelligence services were increasingly blamed, deploying 10,000 troops to protect critical infrastructure.
These incidents are one of 145 incidents associated Press The database, which Western officials argue is part of a broader Russian disruption campaign Europe,
since the president Vladimir Putinattack 2022 ukraineAttempts to undermine perceived campaign support KyivPromoting division, and exposing security vulnerabilities.
While most acts in this “hybrid war” have caused minimal damage as opposed to destruction ukraineOfficials warn they are depleting vital security resources.
The head of a major European intelligence service has said that investigating Russian interference now consumes as much of the agency’s time as terrorism.
While this campaign places a heavy burden on European security services, it also has a cost Russia Officials say nothing.
that’s because moscow Waging cross-border operations that require European countries to cooperate extensively in investigations – while often using foreigners with criminal backgrounds as cheap proxies for Russian intelligence operatives.
That means moscow Victory is achieved only by combining resources – even when the plots do not succeed.
“There is a 24/7 operation between all services to stop this,” said a senior European intelligence official, who, like the head of a European intelligence service and other officials who spoke to the AP, insisted on anonymity to discuss sensitive security matters.
Over the course of the year, the AP spoke to more than 40 Europeans nato Officials from 13 countries will document the scope of this hybrid war, adding events to its map only when linked by Western officials Russiaits representatives or its affiliates belarus,
Putin’s spokesperson Dmitry Peskov Told the AP that Russia had “no connection” to the campaign.
Russian sabotage and disruption across Europe
The AP’s database shows that arson and explosives plots are expected to increase from one in 2023 to 26 in 2024. Six have been documented so far in 2025. Meanwhile, three vandalism cases were registered last year, and one case was registered this year.
The data is incomplete because not all incidents are made public, and it may take months for authorities to establish the link. moscowBut the spike matches warnings from officials: The campaign is becoming more dangerous,
According to the map, the countries most frequently targeted bordering Russia are: Poland and estoniaMany incidents have also happened in latviathe UK, Germany And FranceAll are major supporters ukraine,
European official, a senior baltic The intelligence officer and another intelligence official said the campaign largely calmed down between late 2024 and early this year. Their analysis revealed that Moscow likely orchestrated the campaign to curry favor with the US President. donald trumpNew administration. It has since resumed at full speed.
“They are back in business,” the European official said.
Multinational plots deplete resources
Authorities say Yevgeny Ivanov was behind the attack on a Polish railway supplying Ukraine – a Ukrainian convicted of working with Russian military intelligence to plot arson attacks on home improvement stores, a cafe and a drone factory in Ukraine, according to court documents.
Ivanov, who left Poland after the invasion, worked for a Russian official, Yuri Sizov. GRU According to the Security Service of Ukraine, the military intelligence service.
Polish Interior Minister Marcin Kierwiński said that Ivanov was convicted in Ukraine in absentia, but he managed to enter Poland because Ukraine had not informed Polish authorities about his conviction. The Security Service of Ukraine said it cooperates closely with allies.
Staged conspiracies that involve criminals from multiple countries or who cross borders drain the investigative resources of various authorities Europe – one of Moscow’s key targets, according to Estonian state prosecutor Triinu Olaev-Aas.
Over the past year, he profiled attackers estonia Law enforcement has largely turned from known locals to unknown foreigners. This requires increased cooperation among countries to foil conspiracies or detain criminals.
Olave-Aas said that for two attacks in January – a supermarket and a Ukrainian restaurant were set on fire – the people hired had never been to Estonia before.
In the restaurant, a Moldovan man broke a window, threw a can of gasoline and set it on fire. In the video, his hand is seen on fire while running.
The man and his companion ran away latvia, lithuania and Poland before being captured in Italy.
turning to criminals
While Russian intelligence officers may mastermind such operations, they often rely on recruiters – often convicted or with criminal connections – who assign tasks to saboteurs on the ground. baltic The officer said.
Outsourcing people with criminal backgrounds like Ivanov means Russia won’t have to put highly trained intelligence operatives at risk — agents Moscow often has no recourse to as European countries have forced out many spies as relations have deteriorated in recent years.
Russian criminal networks offer a ready alternative, the Baltic official said.
For example, the man accused of coordinating a plot to plant explosives in packages on cargo planes was recruited by Russian intelligence after being involved in smuggling guns and explosives, the European official said. The man has been linked to at least four other plots.
Others are recruited from European prisons or soon after release, the Baltic official said.
In one case, Latvia’s Occupation Museum, dedicated to the Soviet Union’s occupation of the country, was set on fire by someone released from prison last month.
More tension, more cooperation
Even plots that are foiled are victories for Moscow because they test security and drain resources.
In 2024, a Ukrainian man, acting on orders of Russian military intelligence, dug up a cache of objects buried in a cemetery. lithuaniaWhich includes drone parts and corn boxes filled with explosives.
Authorities believe the plan was to detonate the drone with explosives. Jacek Dobrzynski, a spokesman for Poland’s security minister, said the plot was ultimately foiled – but not before considerable resources were used to track down everyone involved.
The sheer number of plots is overwhelming some law enforcement agencies, but Moscow’s campaign has also fostered greater cooperation, the European official said.
Martins Jansons, a special prosecutor in Latvia, said prosecutors in Latvia, Lithuania and Estonia have created joint investigative teams for attacks organized by foreign intelligence services.
In the UK, front-line Police Commander Dominic Murphy, head of the Metropolitan counter-terrorism squad, said officers were being trained to spot suspicious incidents that could be state-backed. Police,
He said a trainee detective had reported an arson attack on a London warehouse after he learned the business was owned by Ukrainians and contained communications equipment used by the military. Police determined that the attack was organized by Russian intelligence.
But officials warn that Russia is constantly testing new methods.
Smugglers in Russia’s allies belarus Hundreds of meteorological balloons carrying cigarettes have been launched over Lithuania and Poland, causing repeated closures of the Lithuanian capital’s airport in what authorities have called a hybrid attack.
“Nowadays they only carry cigarettes,” Dobrzynski warned, “but in the future they may carry other things too.”