“These latest results push Keir Starmer one step closer to repeating a Blair-level result for Labour.”
London:
A major poll of more than 18,000 people on Wednesday predicted a crushing defeat for British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak’s ruling Conservatives, with the opposition Labor Party expected to win 403 seats, far more than needed for a majority. 326 seats required.
The new multi-level model and post-stratification (MRP) data released by YouGov follows a similar large poll conducted over the weekend, predicting defeat for the Conservatives and Keir Starmer’s Labor Party And the Conservatives, led by Sunak, will get 201. There are only 155 seats left, a decrease of 210 seats.
The findings suggest the Conservatives’ defeat is worse than the defeat under former Tory prime minister John Major in 1997, when Tony Blair’s Labor party was left with just 165 MPs.
“These latest results push Keir Starmer a step closer to a repeat of Blair’s level of results for Labor, exactly 27 years after Labour’s longest-serving prime minister first took office. In that election, Blair won the next 418 of the 659 seats in the House of Representatives,” YouGov analysis reads.
The report said: “In comparison, Rishi Sunak’s current result will be worse than John Major’s 165 seats in 1997. The coming wave predicted by this model will sweep away several leading conservative parties Party figure.”
The most prominent MPs who could lose their seats in the House of Commons include Chancellor Jeremy Hunt, Science Secretary Michelle Donelan and Upgrade Minister Michael Gove. Other senior Tories in areas of electoral instability include Commons leader Penny Mordaunt and former minister Jacob Rees-Mogg.
According to early YouGov modeling, the Lib Dems rose one seat to 49, on track to achieve a “major parliamentary comeback” without any significant change in their national vote share. In Scotland, YouGov now predicts Labor will easily become the largest party.
The main results based on this MRP model were 41% for Labor, 24% for the Conservatives, 12% for the Lib Dems, 7% for the Greens and 12% for the far-right Reform Party , others are 1%.
YouGov said it interviewed 18,761 British adults between March 7 and 27, the latest survey to predict a 1997-style result for the Conservatives in the UK general election, which Sunak said would take place next year. Held half a year.
“Constituency-level forecasts are estimated using the same statistical methods that correctly predicted the 2017 and 2019 UK general elections – multi-level modeling and post-stratification (MRP),” the report said.
The repeal of the Fixed Term Parliaments Act 2022 restores the Prime Minister’s ability to set an election date. However, by law general elections must be held at least every five years, making January 2025 the furthest deadline for Sunak to get to the ballot box.
(Except for the headline, this story has not been edited by NDTV staff and is published from a syndicated feed.)
