Revealed: The NSW Blues stars on chopping block after Origin ambush

Matt Burton, Angus Crichton, Clint Gutherson, Jordan McLean, Victor Radley, Siosifa Talakai and Jake Trbojevic were all brought into the squad for game two.

The changes had the desired effect as the Blues romped to a 44-12 win over the Maroons to level the series.

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While NSW’s 26-18 defeat to Queensland in Adelaide was hardly surprising if pre-game predictions were anything to go by, the nature of the loss was particularly worrying.

The Blues had 39 tackles in the opposition 20 compared to 14 for the Maroons and managed two fewer tries, falling apart late even with a Queensland player in the sin bin.

It is only early and a lot could happen between now and Fittler naming his squad for the must-win game two at Suncorp.

But whose position is safe and whose spot is under threat? Foxsports.com.au answers those questions and more below in a comprehensive NSW selection guide ahead of game two.

FULLBACK: James Tedesco (UNDER THREAT)

Now, will Tedesco — the captain of the team — lose his spot for Game 2? Probably not. After all, Brad Fittler’s loyalty is one of his greatest strengths — at least to his players. Although in this case and many others, it may end up also being his biggest weakness and costing him his coaching job.

Fittler did make wholesale changes after the Blues lost the series opener last year, although none of the omissions came close to a player of Tedesco’s standing in the team.

With 20 Origin matches to his name, Tedesco ran out on Wednesday night as NSW’s most capped player. Experience though obviously doesn’t always equate to success.

And in the case of Tedesco, he had two moments to forget late in the series opener.

The first saw the Blues fullback slip over as Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow breezed past him to score, although that try in itself was on his teammates who missed Cameron Munster in the first place.

The second, however, was all on Tedesco as Roosters teammate Lindsay Collins leapt above the 30-year-old to bat the ball back to Munster for the game-winning try.

Both of these mistakes contributed to Queensland tries but of greater concern to coach Fittler would have been a moment earlier in the first half.

The Blues had the Maroons defence shot on the right edge and a two-on-one had presented itself, with Josh Addo-Carr unmarked and instead took on Murray Taulagi.

It was one poor decision that illuminated a far greater issue for NSW with Tedesco at fullback.

As always, no one could fault his workrate as Tedesco ran 22 times for 182 metres to go with six tackle busts.

But sometimes less is more and for Tedesco, it looked at times like he was more of a hindrance than help in attack inside the Queensland red zone.

Former Blues player Ryan Girdler touched on it while speaking on Triple M on Thursday morning as he tried to explain what was behind NSW’s disjointed attack.

“I’m yet to see the Jarome Luai, Nathan Cleary and James Tedesco combination work. I just don’t think they’re in sync,” Girdler said.

“There were a couple of times where it looks like they’re all ready for the football and it just seems to go to the wrong guy.

“There were a couple of times that Teddy went into first receiver. I really don’t believe he should get into first receiver. Generally halves get into first receiver and get the ball where it needs to go whereas I think Teddy will get into first receiver on the back of some momentum or a linebreak and he’ll run.

“Sometimes he’s got to be at the back of shape. He’s the captain and played 20 Origins and he’s our leader, I understand all of that, but I just think in crucial moments they get in each other’s way and it’s not clear who needs the ball and whoever does need the ball, where it needs to go to.”

The obvious solution is to bring in Panthers fullback Dylan Edwards, who you can also rely on for the 200-plus run metres Tedesco offers every time he puts on the sky blue jumper.

What you get in addition is a dependable defender and, most importantly, the final piece of the 2022 premiership-winning spine alongside Jarome Luai, Nathan Cleary and Apisai Koroisau.

Of course, the question Fittler needs to answer now is whether having so many Panthers in the team is holding the Blues back from forming their own distinct attacking identity.

The Penrith connection did produce points on Wednesday night but maybe it is also part of the reason why the team as a whole struggled for rhythm and cohesion.

The other alternative is to put Latrell Mitchell at the back, although that may not be smart given the South Sydney star will be returning from a calf strain.

Plus, Mitchell’s workrate is not comparable to that of Tedesco or Edwards and the Blues can always use him as a fullback in attacking shapes even if he doesn’t have the No.1 on his back.

While statistics won’t always tell the full story, with Tedesco’s Roosters struggling this year, here is a snapshot of how all three have fared this season in clubland.

2023 STATS (average)

DYLAN EDWARDS

Run metres: 182

Kick return metres: 58

Tackle busts: 6.5

Try assists: 0.4

Linebreak assists: 0.6

Total try involvements: 1.09

Kicks defused rate: 70.8 per cent

JAMES TEDESCO

Run metres: 145

Kick return metres: 48

Tackle busts: 4.8

Try assists: 0.4

Linebreak assists: 0.4

Total try involvements: 0.7

Kicks defused rate: 88.9 per cent

LATRELL MITCHELL

Run metres: 94

Kick return metres: 31

Tackle busts: 5.3

Try assists: 0.7

Linebreak assists: 1.3

Total try involvements: 2.1

Kicks defused rate: 65.2 per cent

WINGERS: Brian To’o (SAFE) and Josh Addo-Carr (SAFE)

There isn’t much to dig into here because To’o and Addo-Carr weren’t the reason the Blues lost.

Really, if there is anything that should change it is To’o going back to the right wing where he plays for Penrith with Addo-Carr shifting to the left like he is at the Bulldogs.

That would make plenty of sense and mean both would be more comfortable both during set plays in attack and when defending too.

A noted speedster like Addo-Carr is crucial as everyone saw what Tabuai-Fidow was able to do in both of his tries. The Foxx is capable of the same, he just needs the opportunities.

As for To’o, he led all players in the game according to the Fox Sports Lab with 201 run metres, 70 of which were post-contact, while he also busted six tackles.

To’o runs just as hard in the sixth minute as he does in the 60th and his explosive carries are always going to be valuable irrespective of what the rest of the team looks like.

CENTRES: Stephen Crichton (UNDER THREAT) and Tom Trbojevic (SAFE)

Realistically, Crichton didn’t do anything to justify being left out of the team for Game 2. He actually had one of his best games in the representative arena.

The Panthers centre looked threatening with every run, finishing with 119 metres (46 post-contact), three tackle busts and a try. He is also a threat in the air and a target for Blues halfback Cleary.

With Mitchell set to be fit to play after missing game one with a calf injury, Crichton looks certain to miss out unless the South Sydney gun is moved to fullback.

Even if that is the case though, Rabbitohs teammate Campbell Graham could again come into contention too.

Of course, another alternative would be moving Crichton to the bench as a utility option if Nicho Hynes is given a starting berth at Suncorp.

But that would just be repeating the same mistake Fittler made with Hynes in the first place as Crichton offers little value outside of the off chance of an injury to the backs.

Trbojevic will also be there again for game two, although he is set to miss Manly’s game this weekend after showing Category 1 concussion symptoms in Wednesday’s loss to Queensland.

It means Fittler will be picking Trbojevic without the Sea Eagles fullback playing another game.

For a player of Trbojevic’s game-breaking ability though that is no issue, although the Blues could do better in game two to get the former Dally M more involved as a roaming threat.

HALVES: Jarome Luai (UNDER THREAT) and Nathan Cleary (SAFE)

It may seem odd for Luai to be under more pressure to keep his spot given the fact he actually had the better game of the two on Wednesday night.

But there is just no chance that Fittler would drop Cleary, who has long been earmarked as the future halfback of the Blues.

Luai had one of his better games of the year against Queensland, playing a beautiful short pass to put Liam Martin steaming through a hole for the Blues’ first try of the game.

While Luai can be indecisive at times for Penrith, he picked his moments well on Wednesday and his unpredictable running game added something to NSW’s otherwise uninspiring attack.

The problem for Luai though is that it is clear Hynes holds very little value for the Blues on the bench and as the reigning Dally M medallist, he deserves consideration for a starting spot.

The Blues had also reportedly given serious thought to naming Cody Walker at five-eighth, although Hynes makes more sense given what he would offer halves partner Cleary.

Even if Hynes plays a similar role to that of Cleary at club level, adding his long-range kicking game into the mix could help free up the Panthers halfback to run the ball more.

The Panthers halfback had just five runs for 26 metres on Wednesday and generally struggled to get into any sort of rhythm.

Speaking on Triple M, former Blues player and Panthers legend Ryan Girdler said at times Cleary was too quick to delegate and not back his own ability.

“You see the control that Nathan plays with and the dominance he plays with at club level and sometimes you can come into Origin level and feel like you need to let everyone else shine around and you’re always looking to pass,” Girdler said.

“Nathan is a good runner of the football and I think when he squares up the defensive line and goes in deep he often comes out the other side. I just think at this level he feels like he needs to feed the other people… it takes away from his own game.”

FRONT ROWERS: Tevita Pangai Junior (UNDER THREAT), Payne Haas (SAFE)

Tevita Pangai Junior certainly ran hard and made an impact early, although he only had the 29 minutes with short stints both in the first and second half.

Even still, the Bulldogs front rower ran 11 times for 93 metres — an average of 8.4 metres per carry.

If Jake Trbojevic was able to return to the fold it would have allowed Pangai Junior to move back to the bench, where he may be better suited as more of an impact player.

But at this stage Trbojevic is expected to miss the entire series with a calf injury, although that doesn’t mean Pangai Junior could move to the bench or be dropped entirely.

If Fittler wanted a similar style player to Pangai Junior but without the risky offloads or ill-discipline, rising Panthers star Spencer Leniu could be one option to come in.

Leniu though is obviously still young and untested in the Origin arena but the 22-year-old has the kind of leg drive that could cause all kinds of problems for tired Maroons forwards in the middle of a game.

Leniu, who is a chance of returning from injury this week for the Panthers, actually leads Penrith forwards this year with an average of 110 run metres off the bench.

Otherwise, if Fittler wants a safer alternative, Tevita Tatola and either of the Saifiti brothers could come into calculations.

Ryan Matterson (calf, Round 16) and Reagan Campbell-Gillard (groin, Round 17) are two other options for the remainder of the series if they prove their fitness.

Elsewhere, Payne Haas is obviously safe although Fittler could look to get more out of the Broncos superstar, who only played 50-odd minutes in Wednesday’s series opener.

Fittler could also benefit from better planning his interchanges so as to have his best middles on the field at the same time for longer periods during the game.

HOOKER: Apisai Koroisau (SAFE)

Not much to write here.

Koroisau will be there again in game two and going back to Girdler’s comments, if the Blues need the ball in the right hands sooner they are best served sticking with the Tigers hooker.

The premiership winner’s service was crisp on Wednesday, even as he tackled himself into the ground in a tireless defensive effort over 80 minutes.

The bigger question for Fittler is whether he feels like Damien Cook is deserving of a recall on the bench after struggling to find a role for Hynes as the team’s utility.

Although by the sounds of it Fittler wouldn’t have brought Cook on either on Wednesday having been impressed by how the team was faring with Koroisau on the field.

In that sense, if Cook does get the nod the Blues coaching staff will need to figure out a way to get him involved even if it doesn’t necessarily come at the expense of Koroisau’s minutes.

BACK-ROW: Tyson Frizell (SAFE), Hudson Young (UNDER THREAT), Isaah Yeo (SAFE)

One of the more surprising selection decisions ahead of the series opener saw Tyson Frizell rewarded for strong form at Newcastle with a Blues recall.

For all the criticism of Fittler, it proved to be a smart one as Frizell got through plenty of work in defence and made some decisive runs, only denied a try by Taulagi heroics.

Starting lock Isaah Yeo will also be safe, even if he was relatively quiet in attack. Yeo still got through a mountain of work in defence, making 34 tackles without a single miss and also ran for 102 metres — the second-most in the forward pack behind Haas.

As for Young, he had just 31 minutes and a limited impact with 38 metres and 12 tackles.

Instead, it was ill-discipline that proved costly early for the Young who perhaps became a bit too caught up with trying to make a statement with his aggression instead of what has made him such a weapon on the edge for Canberra.

With one game under his sleeve and a lesson learned, Young would surely be better for the run and has enough upside to be worth giving another go at Suncorp.

Otherwise, Manly’s Haumole Olakau’atu and South Sydney’s Keaon Koloamatangi also are offloading threats close the line and could add X-factor alongside the more reliable Frizell.

Having been overlooked for game one though, it’s hard to see Olakau’atu getting the nod with Koloamatangi the more likely to come in. given he was only out of contention due to injury.

BENCH: Junior Paulo (SAFE), Cameron Murray (SAFE), Liam Martin (SAFE), Nicho Hynes (UNDER THREAT)

Again, not much to write about here when it comes to the first three.

Junior Paulo will be there again, with the only real question as to whether he is given a starting role, although the Eels front rower excelled bending the line off the bench.

The same goes for Murray, who has the versatility to play anyway in the pack, while Liam Martin was one of NSW’s best with crunching hits in defence and charging runs.

Then there is Hynes, who Corey Parker said on Fox League’s ‘NRL Tonight’ was “wasted” on the bench before eventually being brought on to replace Trbojevic in the centres.

But based on Fittler’s comments in the post-game press conference, it seems like Hynes wouldn’t have even gotten on the field if Trbojevic hadn’t gone off in the first place.

And if Blues advisor Greg Alexander’s response on Thursday night are anything to go by, NSW is still confident in Hynes’ utility value ahead of game two.

“We had faith in Nicho doing any job that was required from him,” Alexander said on ‘NRL 360’.

“He’s that sort of player. He’s not flustered. Whether he needed to fill a hole at fullback or dummy-half and anything in between, we were confident Nicho could do it.”

In terms of potential alternatives, recalling Cook is one obvious option if the Blues want to mirror what the Maroons have with Ben Hunt and Harry Grant.

Matt Burton, NSW’s 18th man on Wednesday, is another given he has plenty of experience playing in both the centres and halves.

His towering bombs could also add extra variety to the Blues’ kicking game, which was at times one-dimensional and predictable on Wednesday night.

Originally published as Revealed: The NSW Blues stars on chopping block after Origin ambush