New Delhi:

A new study finds that warming the planet by 3 degrees Celsius could cost the world 10% of its GDP.

The report also found that poorer tropical countries are likely to be hardest hit – with losses of up to 17% of GDP.

The study, led by ETH Zurich in Switzerland and published in the journal Nature Climate Change, found that around half of the projected global economic losses could be linked to extreme heat, with heat waves having the greatest impact of the extreme events analyzed.

“The effects will be more severe in the Southern Hemisphere, with the greatest impacts in Africa and the Middle East, where higher initial temperatures make countries particularly vulnerable to further warming,” the authors write.

The researchers further found that the global cost of climate change increased after accounting for changes in rainfall and temperature over short periods of time at a location.

Paul Waidelich, a doctoral researcher and economist at ETH Zurich, said: “If we take into account that warm years are also accompanied by changes in rainfall and temperature variability, the estimated impact of rising temperatures is larger than previously thought. It’s going to be serious.”

Researchers found that limiting global temperature rise to 1.5 degrees Celsius could reduce projected economic losses by two-thirds.

Sonia Seneviratne, co-author of the study and vice-chair of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, said: “Some still say the world cannot afford rapid decarbonization, but neither will the global economy. Affected by climate change” Group 1.

In the study, the researchers used 33 global climate models and analyzed climate indicators related to greenhouse gas emissions and income growth between 1850 and 2100. Indicators include mean annual temperature, annual precipitation, and extreme precipitation.

The authors acknowledge that significant uncertainties remain in predicting the cost impacts of climate change.

They said the uncertainty was mainly “socio-economic” – how long the effects would last and how well societies were able to adapt.

They added that the total cost of climate change is likely to be “quite high” because the study did not include non-economic impacts, drought, sea level rise and climate tipping points.

(Except for the headline, this story has not been edited by NDTV staff and is published from a syndicated feed.)