The majority of the world’s live births will occur in poorer countries, the report said.
Paris:
Fertility rates in nearly all countries will be too low to sustain population levels by the end of the century and most of the world’s live births will occur in poorer countries, a study published on Wednesday showed.
Stein Emil Vollset, a senior researcher at the Institute for Health Metrics, said the trend will lead to a “baby boom” and “baby bust” around the world, with prosperity concentrated in those more vulnerable to the Low-income countries affected by economic and political instability. The Institute for Assessment and Evaluation (IHME) at the University of Washington in Seattle said in a statement.
The study reported in The Lancet predicts that by 2050, 155 of the world’s 204 countries and regions, or 76%, will have fertility rates below replacement levels. By 2100, this number is expected to rise to 198 countries and territories, or 97%, researchers estimate.
These projections are based on surveys, censuses and other data sources collected between 1950 and 2021 as part of the Global Burden of Disease, Injury and Risk Factor Study.
Researchers say that by the end of the century, more than three-quarters of live births will occur in low- and lower-middle-income countries, with more than half in sub-Saharan Africa.
Data show that the global fertility rate (the average number of children per woman) has dropped from about 5 children in 1950 to 2.2 children in 2021.
By 2021, 110 countries and territories (54%) have fertility rates below the replacement level of 2.1 children per woman.
The study highlights particularly worrying trends in countries such as South Korea and Serbia, where fertility rates are below 1.1 children per woman, leaving them facing the challenge of shrinking labor forces.
Many of the countries with the most limited resources “will grapple with how to support the planet’s youngest and fastest-growing populations in some of the most politically and economically unstable, hottest, and most strained health system places on the planet.” Walsett said.
Researchers say that while fertility declines in high-income countries reflect greater educational and employment opportunities for women, the trend points to an urgent need elsewhere to improve access to modern contraception and female education.
Furthermore, “once nearly every country’s population shrinks, reliance on open immigration will become necessary to sustain economic growth,” Natalia Bhattacharjee of IHME, a co-author of the report, said in a statement.
The authors note that forecasts are limited by the quantity and quality of past data, particularly during the 2020-2021 COVID-19 pandemic.
(Except for the headline, this story has not been edited by NDTV staff and is published from a syndicated feed.)
