Experts say rebuilding Baltimore’s collapsed Francis Scott Key Bridge could take 18 months to a few years and could cost at least $400 million, or more than twice that amount.
It all depends on factors that are still unknown. They range from the design of new bridges to how quickly government officials navigate the bureaucracy of approving permits and awarding contracts.
In reality, the project could take five to seven years, said Ben Shafer, a professor of engineering at Johns Hopkins University.
“The lead time for air conditioning units in a home right now is about 16 months, right?” Schaefer said. “So, like you’re telling me they’re going to build an entire bridge in two years? I hope that’s true, but I think from experience, it doesn’t feel right to me.”
Others are more optimistic about the potential timeline: George Washington University engineering professor Sameh Badie said the project could take as little as 18 months to two years.
On Tuesday, the foundation bridge collapsed, killing six workers who were working on the bridge. Dali The cargo ship hit its support. Officials are scrambling to clean up and rebuild after the crash, which closed the city’s busy port and part of the Baltimore Beltway.
The disaster was similar in some ways to the fatal collapse of Florida’s Sunshine Skyway Bridge in 1980, which struck a freighter in Tampa Bay. The new bridge took five years to build, was 19 months late, and was built $20 million over budget. Opened in 1987.
But experts say it’s better to look to recent bridge disasters to see how quickly they can be rebuilt.
Jim Tymon, executive director of the American Association of State Highway and Transportation Officials, cited the case of the Interstate 35W bridge in Minnesota, which collapsed into the Mississippi River in 2007. The new span was completed in less than 14 months.
“This is the best comparison we have for a project like this,” Tymon said. “They did a great job getting the necessary approvals to be able to rebuild as quickly as possible.”
Timon wants various government agencies to work together to advance permitting, environmental and other efforts.
“That doesn’t mean all the right boxes won’t be checked — they will be,” Tymon said. “This will only be done more efficiently because everyone will know this has to be done quickly.”
A looming issue is funding. President Joe Biden has repeatedly said the federal government will pay for the new bridge, but that remains to be seen.
“Hopefully, Congress can come together quickly to provide these resources so they don’t become a source of delay,” Timon said.
Minnesota Sen. Amy Klobuchar helped quickly secure funding to rebuild the state’s I-35W bridge. But replacing the Baltimore span could be more complicated, she said.
She pointed out that the I-35W bridge, a federal interstate, is a much busier road, with about 140,000 cars crossing it every day, compared to the Maryland bridge, which has about 31,000 cars crossing it every day.
“But where there’s a will, there’s a way, and you can get emergency funding,” Klobuchar said. “When disaster strikes, it happens all over the country. The fact is that this is such an important port and it’s worth making sure this is all taken care of.”
George Washington University’s Buddy said the cost could be between $500 million and $1 billion, with the biggest variable being design.
For example, a suspension bridge like San Francisco’s Golden Gate Bridge would cost more, while a cable-stayed bridge like Florida’s Skyway Sunshine Bridge, which uses cables and towers to handle the weight, would be cheaper.
Buddy said steel is currently expensive no matter what is being built, and there is a backlog of I-beams. Additionally, there are a limited number of construction companies that can take on such projects, and they are already busy with other work.
“Projects like this are going to be accelerated, so everything is going to cost more,” Badi said.
West Virginia University engineering professor Hota GangaRao said the project could cost just $400 million. But this was only done using the pier foundations of the old bridge. Designers may want to place new supports further away from the haulage aisle to avoid another collision.
“It will require more steel, more complex structures and more checks and balances,” Gangarao said. “It all adds up.”
Norma Jean Mattei, professor emeritus of engineering at the University of New Orleans, said replacing the key bridge could take several years. Even if this is a priority, the process of designing the span, obtaining permits, and hiring a contractor can take a significant amount of time. Then you have to build it.
“Getting this type of bridge actually operational is a fairly complex process,” she said.
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