This weekend there will be a sham election in Russia that we all know Vladimir Putin will win in a landslide.
However, even if the results of stage management are completely predictable, that doesn’t mean the vote is meaningless. The election could mark a new phase in his rule, or it could end up having the opposite effect as intended, undermining rather than enhancing the legitimacy of his regime.
Elections under Putin have less of an impact on the immediate results than on the efforts the regime has to make to close the gap between the actual results and those about to be announced.
The smaller the gap, the more likely people are to accept the vote and Putin’s legitimacy.
To this end, the regime has made great efforts to “pre-manipulate” the polls. So the Russian president is up against three political dwarfs who are not even trying to pose a serious challenge. For example, the 75-year-old Communist Party candidate Nikolai Kharitonov even promised not to criticize Putin during the campaign.
At the same time, key groups that typically support Putin have also been heavily promised. His recent State of the Union address included promises of billions of rubles in more benefits for families, pensioners, veterans and government workers.
Mayors, governors and state-owned enterprises are responsible for voting, and the polling stations themselves have various incentives to boost turnout, from entertainment to raffles.
Of course, if all else fails, the state can manipulate the vote count, and this time it will be easier thanks to the widespread use of electronic voting. However, the more direct manipulation of the outcome, the greater the likelihood of a public backlash, although now that the regime is becoming increasingly harsh, demonstrations like the Bolotnaya protests of 2011-12 may be less likely to occur .
No matter what, Putin will remain in power. The 71-year-old Putin has been in power directly or indirectly for 24 years, adding another six years to his term. While we shouldn’t expect dramatic changes, the election, despite its stage-managed nature, may have policy implications. By law, the government resigns and the president appoints a new cabinet. This is probably very similar to the old one. Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin is a competent administrator of the system and is expected to be re-elected.
However, Putin could use this as an opportunity to try to promote a new generation of young loyalists, such as Dmitry Patrushev, the 46-year-old agriculture minister but, more importantly, the hawkish secretary of the Security Council , the son of Nikolai Patrushev, one of Putin’s cronies. closest ally.
This reflects Putin’s growing concern about impatience and dissatisfaction within the top elites.
There are also rumors that Sergey Kiriyenko, Putin’s top political manipulator and the government’s first deputy chief of staff, will take up the post of first deputy prime minister.
Kiriyenko was responsible not only for managing the elections but also for pacifying and integrating occupied Ukrainian territories. The promotion would not only qualify Kiriyenko for the premiership but also signal his greater determination to keep those holdings.
The war in Ukraine has other potential impacts. There have long been signs that Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu is willing to give up his post. If Putin does remove him from power, it will trigger a broader reshuffle at the top of the military. The new minister will bring in his own candidate to replace the unpopular chief of general staff Valery Gerasimov. The successor may prove to be more capable.
Most worryingly, once the election is over, Putin may feel free to escalate the situation. The war was unpopular at home and he had to carefully avoid it in his campaign speeches. It also led him to rule out a wider mobilization of reservists. Some of his generals have long argued that Russia needs more troops if it is to exploit its current advantages.
After the election, Putin may be willing to concede, and Ukraine may find itself facing hundreds of thousands of additional invaders.
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