Prashant Kishor's mega poll predicts east, south warns opposition

Poll strategist Prashant Kishor helped Nitish Kumar and Mamata Banerjee defeat the BJP (file photo).

With less than two weeks to go until the general election, poll strategist Prashant Kishore has issued a red alert to the Congress party and India’s opposition bloc, warning Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s Bharatiya Janata Party of the worst in the east and south. Performance (seats + vote share) improved in six states.

Mr Kishore, who guided the Congress, Trinamool and Aam Aadmi parties to win over the Prime Minister’s Bharatiya Janata Party, reiterated his past warnings that the ruling party was not invincible.

But he also warned the opposition that they had run out of chances to stop the BJP’s hegemony, pointing to a series of missed opportunities between 2016 and 2018 and during the coronavirus pandemic. “If you fail to catch the ball, the batsman will score a century… especially if he is a good batsman,” he told news agency PTI.

Prashant Kishore’s warning to opposition

“They (BJP) will come first or second in Telangana… it is a big thing. They will definitely come first in Odisha. And, you will be surprised … In my opinion, the BJP will be No. 1 in Bengal,” Mr. Kishore said, flagging each state where the party lost in the recent assembly elections.

“In Tamil Nadu, the party’s vote share is likely to reach double digits,” he said. For context, the BJP polled 3.6% of the votes in the 2019 Lok Sabha elections and only 2.6% in the 2021 Assembly elections.

The BJP has struggled to drum up support in these regions in the past, with its core nationalist ideology failing to resonate with voters; in 2014 and 2019, it won only Telangana, Odisha, Bengal, Tamil Nadu, Andhra Pradesh and Kerala have 7 and 30 seats out of 164 seats.

The exception is Karnataka, where the BJP won 25 out of 28 seats in 2019. Still, many believe the Congress is weakened here too after the party’s resounding victory in last year’s assembly elections.

Read | In Karnataka, BJP battle could derail party’s ‘Mission South’ plan

Fast forward five years, however, and the BJP’s continued outreach and down-to-earth approach in these areas could pay (relatively) huge dividends, boosting the party’s profile in the upcoming polls, even if it doesn’t Translating into success in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections.

Three of the six states – Bengal, Kerala and Tamil Nadu – will go to polls before 2026.

Kishore said the BJP has made a “significant and visible push” to expand in these states, pointing to multiple visits by Prime Minister and Home Minister Amit Shah, the party’s two biggest figures.

Mr. Modi has already made six (counting only Tamil Nadu).

“Count the Prime Minister’s visits to Tamil Nadu in the last five years and the visits to Rahul Gandhi or Sonia Gandhi or any other opposition leader in the battleground state.

BJP’s Hindi heartland advantage

Mr Kishore believes the opposition has so far failed to make a similar push in the northern and western states – the Hindi heartland – where there are 239 seats and where the BJP dominates.

Mr Modi is demanding more than 370 seats – to ensure the opposition cannot challenge his Bharatiya Janata Party for a third consecutive term – and more than 400 seats, including from National Democratic Alliance partners.

A large portion of this will come from the hinterland states including Gujarat, Rajasthan, Haryana, Bihar and Madhya Pradesh, as well as Jharkhand, Chhattisgarh and Uttarakhand.

Read | ‘BJP will get 370 seats, NDA 400’: PM Modi’s big claim

In the heart of the heartland – Uttar Pradesh, Madhya Pradesh and Bihar – there are 149 seats. In 2019, the BJP won 107 and the Congress three, including eight by its current allies.

The Congress lost assembly elections in three states last year – Rajasthan, Chhattisgarh and Madhya Pradesh – and in three others – Uttarakhand, Uttar Pradesh and Gujarat the year before. defeat.

Mr Kishore highlighted this concern in his comments.

“Your battle is in Uttar Pradesh, Bihar and Madhya Pradesh… but you are touring Manipur and Meghalaya. So how will you succeed,” said Mr. Kishore. Yatra’, The tour took place this year in the Northeastern states.

Manipur and Meghalaya have a total of four Lok Sabha seats.

“370 is unlikely for the BJP, but…”

Overall, Mr Kishore admitted the BJP was unlikely to achieve its ambitious targets but said the prime minister’s party would still win comfortably on the back of results in its heartland strongholds.

The BJP “will only feel the pressure if the opposition, especially the Congress, can ensure that it loses about 100 seats in the north and west”. But he told PTI “that will not happen”.

“Overall, the BJP will be able to hold its ground in these areas,” he predicted.

Mr Kishore played down the opposition’s solution – the India Bloc – and said it was neither a “desirable nor efficient” option as nearly 350 seats were already one-on-one contests.

The key, he said, was ensuring each opposition party had a clear “narrative, a face and an agenda”.

It’s not all doom and gloom for the opposition.

Mr Kishore rejected suggestions that a third consecutive victory would mean the BJP would extend its already long political dominance. “This is a big illusion…” he said, “as long as the opposition takes action.”

Prashant Kishore on Rahul Gandhi

On Mr Gandhi’s apparent reluctance to contest from Congress stronghold Amethi in Uttar Pradesh, which the BJP’s Smriti Irani won in 2019, Mr Kishore warned: “If you are not in Uttar Pradesh , Bihar and Madhya Pradesh win, then there will be no benefit even if you win in Uttar Pradesh.” Wayanad.

Read | ‘If Amici wants me…’: Robert Vadra hints at polls

Mr Gandhi will defend his Lok Sabha seat from Wayanad in Kerala but seems unlikely to return to Amethi. “Strategically speaking… I can say that letting Amisi go would just send the wrong message,” Mr Kishore said.

Read | ‘No one can help you if…’: Prashant Kishore’s advice to Rahul Gandhi

There are also doubts over the Congress’ second stronghold of Raebareli, won by Sonia Gandhi in 2019. Mrs Gandhi has moved to the Rajya Sabha this year.

Congress has also not fielded a new candidate for the seat.