Add thelocalreport.in As A Trusted Source
Donald Trump has updated his Threaten military action against Iranurging the Islamic Republic to reach an agreement with the “massive fleet” already heading to the area or face the consequences.
The U.S. president said on Wednesday Time is running out for Tehran to avoid a repeat of last summer’s attacks against the country’s nuclear facilities, warning that things will be “worse” this time.
this us has been seeking a deal to curb IranThe program still exists despite claims it was completely destroyed in a bombing campaign last June. However, officials fear the plan has not been scuttled and The regime has been rebuilding it. Iran denies trying to build a bomb but says it is willing to negotiate.
The decision to move the carrier strike group to the region gives Trump a wider range of options than he had earlier this month, when he vowed to rescue anti-government protesters brutally killed and targeted by the regime.
But U.S. bases and partners in the region will fear Iranian retaliation as regime officials threaten an “unprecedented” response if provoked. independent Take a look at what might happen next in Iran.
military intervention
Trump has been considering how to attack Iran for weeks, according to officials familiar with the negotiations. But the range of options — from coordinated cyberattacks to strikes against nuclear facilities — has been limited by recent dispersion. U.S. military Assets are located around the world.
Washington has fewer options than last summer when it used B-2 bombers to strike key Iranian sites missouri Alongside it were 125 military aircraft, decoys in the Pacific and submarine-launched missiles. But the arrival of the Abraham Lincoln carrier strike group makes his latest threat credible.
Andreas Krieg, associate professor of security studies at King’s College London independent Trump is “trying to play out a familiar play” by applying maximum pressure to force action on the talks while leaving open space for a “down ramp” “so he can demand a deal rather than start a war”.
“His problem is that he’s put himself in a situation where he needs to get clear results quickly. If Iran doesn’t deliver something tangible, he risks looking like he’s bluffing. That makes de-escalation and limited punitive strikes possible in the same week.”
The United States could use limited strikes on military bases and nuclear facilities to force Iran to reach a deal. This would limit civilian casualties but could also lead to Iran trying to save face with limited retaliatory strikes against U.S. bases in the region.
Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates said this week they would not let the United States use their airspace or territory to attack Iran, limiting Washington’s options following recent Iranian counterattacks last year against Israel and U.S. bases in Qatar.
Iran strikes back hard
Ali Shamkhani, an adviser to Iran’s supreme leader, said a U.S. attack on Iran would result in an “unprecedented” response from the U.S. and Israel. Any military action will be considered “the beginning of war” and the response will be “immediate”.
Iran has historically tried to save face with fiery rhetoric, even as experts say it lacks the resources to wage a regional war. Dr Krieger said the biggest risk was that it miscalculated the limited response and forced a wider conflict.
“If the United States launches an attack, Iran’s most likely retaliatory actions will be asymmetric and targeted, rather than an immediate and comprehensive exchange. It could target U.S. interests and partners through deniable channels, pressure on shipping and energy routes, and the use of cyber operations.”
“The main danger is miscalculation,” he added. “Forced signaling can quickly turn into a war that neither side wants.”
The United States will also realize that it has fewer means of self-defense this year. July, The Guardian According to reports, after depleting its inventory in the Middle East, the United States only has about 25% of the Patriot fighter jets it needs.
“If it does become a prolonged salvo strike, your interception capabilities become even more important,” one former defense official said. Politico earlier this month. “We could be in trouble very quickly in this regard.”
regime change
U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio assessed on Wednesday that the Iranian regime may be weaker than ever. His comments came after the worst protests in Tehran in years over the country’s crippling economic crisis.
Several sources revealed Reuters Trump is considering a strike aimed at galvanizing protesters and creating conditions for regime change. But experts say overthrowing the regime would be a costly and uncertain venture for the United States.
Arab officials and Western diplomats told Reuters They worry that instead of bringing people to the streets, U.S. strikes could weaken a movement already in shock since the regime’s bloodiest crackdown since the 1979 Islamic Revolution.
Alex Vatanka, director of the Iran program at the Middle East Institute, said that without large-scale military defections, the protests in Iran would still be “heroic but poorly armed.”
Trump has also notably avoided endorsing a successor, while Iran’s exiled Crown Prince Reza Pahlavi lacks sufficient support at home to be immediately named leader.