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A deal to Release of all hostages held by Hamas Exchange of Palestinian prisoners celebrated in both israel And Gazawhere it is widely seen success that signals the end For war.
israeli prime minister benjamin netanyahu Initial terms of an agreement are agreed which promises at least a ceasefire, if not a permanent end to the conflict. But it leaves questions over his political future, which largely depends on continuing the war Gaza,
Analysts have argued that Netanyahu prolonged the war as a strategy to remain in power, given the possibility of losing future elections. Critics also say the war has served to distract and delay long running corruption case Against those who have Netanyahu Condemned as a witch huntAre consistently and vehemently denying any wrongdoing.
netanyahu, israelLongest serving leader faced widespread almost weekly protests The year before the war broke out over his controversial plans for judicial reform in October 2023, and the International Criminal Court has issued a warrant for his arrest for alleged war crimes committed in Gaza.
“These risks have not diminished,” said former Israeli diplomat Alon Pincus. Al Jazeera“You have to remember, [Donald] Trump is not like that [Joe] Biden. Netanyahu cannot rely on all his friends in the Republican Party to defeat the president. That leverage is all gone. If Trump wants to, he is in a position to make life very difficult for Netanyahu – and Netanyahu knows it.
Since the beginning of the war, Netanyahu has been determined to achieve his stated goal of complete victory Hamas While pleasing his coalition government, on which his political career depends. But Netanyahu had to retaliate by doing so enough not to alienate its Western alliesParticularly the US, whose military and diplomatic support has been Critical to Israel’s war effort,
However, Netanyahu has faced international condemnation over his conduct of the war, which has been devastating for Palestinians. Yet despite facing challenges at home and abroad, he has managed to gain some points in opinion polls in Israel. According to reports, he maintains a solid core of voters among ultra-Orthodox Jews and the settler population, and polls show that the Israeli public has generally shifted to the right since the October 7 attacks two years ago.
Critics noted that pre-war demonstrations focused primarily on issues affecting Jewish Israelis, while ignoring the ongoing occupation of the Palestinian territories. Similarly, the current protests in Gaza calling for the release of hostages have paid limited attention to the humanitarian crisis and suffering faced by Palestinians in Gaza.
Netanyahu’s government is supported by far-right groups that are committed not only to eliminating Hamas and prolong the conflict in Gaza, but strongly oppose any steps toward a two-state solution.
“Let’s not assume that this is an overall end to the war and an overall end to Netanyahu’s wartime leadership position,” said Daniel Levy, president of the US/Middle East Project and a former peace negotiator who has worked with previous Israeli prime ministers. Independent,
He suggested that even if the fighting in Gaza ends, the broader conflict is far from over. He highlighted ongoing Israeli attacks in Syria and Lebanon and pointed to Iran as the next major issue on the horizon. He also warned that Israel was likely to continue military operations, especially west coastWhere its activities have become increasingly destructive.
“We can see that the West Bank will have to pay an even bigger price for this,” Mr. Levy said, noting that this is partly driven by political pressure from within Netanyahu’s coalition, including from the far-right. Itamar ben True and Bezalel Smotrich,
Michelle Barak, an Israeli pollster and former political aide to senior Israeli figures including Netanyahu, said he believed the government was nearing its end, but he did not expect an immediate collapse, as the opposition supports the peace plan put forward by Trump, according to a Reuters report.
Israel’s opposition leader Yair Lapid offered support to the government to save it from collapse if Trump’s plan were to be implemented. On Sunday, Lapid said Netanyahu could agree to an election date, which he said offered “insurance” from the prime minister’s “extremist and irresponsible partners.”
Mr Levy is skeptical about what a ceasefire agreement would actually mean for the Palestinians, and the key question is whether Hamas would agree to give up its weapons.
Netanyahu may try to use the potential hostage deal to boost his political standing, presenting it as a personal success despite criticism. Mr Levy suggested he might run in Israel’s next elections – which should be held by October 2026 – campaigning as the leader who would defeat Hamas and bring the hostages home. He said the deal could be presented in a way to prove it succeeded without major concessions such as a complete withdrawal from Gaza.
“If that doesn’t work, he will say, ‘Look, Hamas is not going to disarm. I will have an excuse to go back to the advanced military level’… The resumption of some military activities that could escalate into Gaza is a very reasonable scenario,” Mr Levy said.
“The second important thing is that in the case of any strong alternative being offered, the same narrative media consensus mechanisms to generate support for war will still exist in Israel, including the weakness of the opposition. So Netanyahu has a lot going for him. He may not be able to put together a coalition, but he will try.”