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oneAs Myanmar heads to the polls on Saturday in the first of three phases of a tightly controlled election, brightly colored campaign posters loom over families with children who are still trying to make a living amid the rubble of destroyed buildings in Myanmar. Nine months ago a devastating earthquake hit Mandalay.
People in Mandalay and the commercial capital Yangon expressed anger and resignation at the so-called pro-democracy exercise, in stark contrast to the enthusiasm at the 2020 and 2015 polls. Aung San Suu Kyi’s The National League for Democracy overwhelmingly defeated the military’s proxy party and its allies.
Bulldozers kicked up dust on streets now packed with vehicles and people, and billboards carried ads from the handful of political parties vetted by the junta and allowed to participate in the vote, the first time since generals ousted Aung San Suu Kyi’s elected government in a coup nearly five years ago.
The earthquake killed thousands and propelled Myanmar back onto the international stage, with many countries contributing to the regime’s relief efforts. But if the junta thinks this means it will reintegrate into the global landscape, it is wrong. Many of these countries, as well as resistance forces across Myanmar, denounced these elections during the civil war as being far from free and fair.
“This time we are forced to vote. We don’t know what will happen if we don’t vote,” said Khin Nang* in Mandalay. Her brother is a political prisoner and she has to be careful. “We hope to get amnesty after the election,” she said, filling a bag with avocados, oranges, cookies, charcuterie and prawns to give to him. “The food in prison is bad,” she added.
“I’m going to vote because I have to. The system is electronic for the first time and it’s not even possible to leave a blank,” Zaw Zaw said. “I don’t even know the names of the candidates or their parties.”
In Yangon, near the Bokyoke Aung San market (named after Aung San Suu Kyi’s father and independence leader), people checked their names on a publicly posted election list.
Many said they would vote out of fear of punishment, while others publicly declared they would boycott the process. Some families are divided, with some older members saying they will choose the military’s political proxy, the Union Solidarity and Development Party (USDP).
Myanmar’s main regime-controlled cities in the heart of the country have been relatively unaffected by fierce conflicts between the military and long-standing ethnic armed groups and the People’s Defense Forces, formed after a 2021 coup. The army, which has held on in the center thanks in large part to its artillery and air power, often attacks civilian targets such as hospitals and schools in an attempt to weaken grassroots support for the resistance.
The severely weakened economy is still functioning to some extent, but soaring food prices and extreme housing difficulties are putting pressure on urban centers crowded with people seeking refuge from fighting and natural disasters. While much of the country is struggling, wealthy Myanmar residents can enjoy well-stocked markets, imported food, a night scene of live music and restaurants, five-star hotels filled with Christmas decorations and barely visible military uniforms.
Thanks in large part to direct intervention from neighboring China and drone technology and other military support provided by Russia, the regime has regained large swaths of territory lost after an October 2023 offensive by ethnic minority alliances in Shan State in the west and Rakhine State in the east. The rebel offensive was initially backed by China and was aimed in part at cracking down on vast fraud centers, some of which are run by Chinese criminal gangs close to the Chinese border and target Chinese citizens.
In a clear indication of how staunchly Beijing now backs the military junta, China hosted Myanmar coup leader Senior General Min Aung Hlaing in Augustcelebrating the 80th anniversary of the victory of the Anti-Japanese War with Russian President Vladimir Putin and North Korean leader Kim Jong Un.
“The country has reached a turning point since China has more clearly sided with the regime,” said a diplomat in Yangon. “They have more control. With these elections, they just want to show their strength.”
Thousands of civilians have been killed in the conflict – the exact death toll is unclear – and more than 20,000 political prisoners remain held in appalling conditions, These include Aung San Suu Kyi, but little information is available about her.
Objecting to the election is a new crime, with more than 200 people arrested since July for related offenses such as criticizing social media posts and distributing anti-voting leaflets. Has been sentenced to more than 40 years in prison.
Suu Kyi is currently serving a 27-year prison sentence for corruption charges that have been widely condemned as politically motivated. Her National League for Democracy and other anti-regime parties that refused to apply to register for elections have been dissolved by the regime.
A lawyer in Bangkok familiar with Suu Kyi’s situation said she had recently developed dental problems but had not received appropriate medical assistance. There has been speculation that the election will bring an amnesty, but few believe her release is likely.
Although her reputation outside Myanmar was severely damaged in 2017 when she defended the military’s attacks on the Rohingya, independent Documentary released a year ago this time – She remains widely revered within Myanmar.
“We have been praying for her,” said Mya Hlaing, a teacher in Yangon, underscoring the widespread affection for their former leader. “People go to the Shwedagon Pagoda to pray for her on her birthday and bring a red rose. Last time my sister said be careful, it was too dangerous a political statement.”
However, two factors make it unlikely that she will regain a key role even if she survives detention: her age – she turned 80 in prison last June – and the emergence of a new generation Bamar majority leading the opposition to the regime.
“Gen Z still respects her, but they won’t listen to her,” the lawyer said.
“The country has to move on,” said Win Htet, a journalist and analyst in Yangon.
The owner of a garment factory in Yangon’s industrial zone hopes the election will bring stability and more foreign investment. “We had to stop operations last month because all orders were canceled because people were afraid of what was happening.”
But few seem convinced that the establishment of a nominal civilian government by the junta will end a brutal civil war that involves not only ethnic armed groups concentrated in border areas but now also the Bamar majority in the heartland around Mandalay.
“What will change after these elections? Nothing,” Thiry replied.
*Names of Myanmar interviewees have been changed to protect identities