Major pollutants are suggested LaborPlan to reduce Voting Age 16 can be as “backfire” Improvement UK And Jeremy CorbinThe new party can achieve the most from the policy instead.
“Seismic” steps announced by the government as part of Lack of measures last month About 1.5 million more teenagers will allow teenagers to cast a ballot, which is the latest in the summer of 2029, until the country goes to the next elections to bring UK-wide elections with Scotland and Wales.
Cair Coward Encouraged 16 and 17 year old children to use their vote in the next election, in which no one is saying 10 Prime Minister “They will be encouraged to fully encourage them as they can be in the future of their country”.
But the top pollutants have warned that the awards were expecting labor that their plans could be run away again, it may not happen Nigel FarajImprovement and Sri Corbin’s party potential real winner.
Respected Pollster and conservative Peer Robert Heword told Independent: “I don’t think the policy would be as beneficial as the Labor Party thought that when he first proposed it.
“My expectation, what we have in multi-sided political fields is that non-maintenance, illegal parties-like improvement, green Party And Corbin’s party – will be the beneficiaries of young people’s will to vote away from traditional parties. ,
Martin Baxter, director of Pollter Electoral Calculus, said: “It may be that Labor Plan for Votes for 16 and 17 years old children , Which looked like a semi-naked to bend the scales in his own favor , If corrections and corbins attract those new, there may be a little backfire Voter,
Research and Communications Associate Louis O’Geran agreed at Polesteers in Common UK. “It would be a mistake to see the age of low turnout the age as an easy win for labor,” he said.
The number behind the voters of 16 and 17 years maps
Independent The new 16 and 17 -year -old voters have mapped the number behind, showing how many are living in each constituency in the entire Britain.
New adolescent voters favored non-maintenance parties
Mr. O’Gran pointed to the gender division among the young people.
“In general, we know that young people are more likely to vote for labor or greens,” he said. “But there is a remarkable gender division: General Z men are more likely to labor and improve, while the green party often occurs among the gene Z women.”
With the possibility of Mr. Corbin’s party focusing on green issues, Lord Hewords suggested that young girls could so support the former labor leader’s party “if it is completely away from the ground”.
He described young people as a major attraction of the new party only as the fact that it is “none of the above” , As an example, he said that “young people enjoy voting opportunities by voting for mainstream parties”.
However, he warned that the influence of the party, which was launched by Mr. Corbin only last month with Zara Sultana, and has not yet been officially nominated, is not really known yet.
Mr. Baxter said that data on the voting capacity of the new party is still difficult to install, with the next General election Not for another four years.
He said: “The younger generation of 18 to 24 Kohrt is very supportive.
“It is also surprisingly more pro -reform as you can think.
“At the moment, I am not looking at hard data on 16 and 17 year old votes , Or in fact, people who will be 16 or 17 in 2029. This is a bit strange because these people are currently 12 and 13, so their political views have probably not yet fully developed.
“But what is the possibility, when they grow up to 16 and 17, to get votes for Jeremy Corbin? Yes.”
Can do policy ‘Subtle openly reopening political map
Lord Heword reported that the impact of new adolescent voters is expected to be “quite consistent” in the UK as their distribution is “quite flat” across the country. Most constituencies will see the “proper average effect”, they predicted.
Exceptions will be the south coast and southwest as well as internal London , East because they are known as “retirement belts”, areas with high ratio of older people, and latter because they can be described as “ultra expensive areas”, most young people cannot tolerate.
Mr. O’Sagaran agreed, predicting that with only 2 percent of voters with children aged 16 and 17, “they will not make any difference in the results in most constituencies”.
However, he believes that young voters can still create a significant difference as a overall. He said: “In a rapidly fragmented political scenario, their votes can help determine the result of a handful of tight race across the country.”
He suggested that Gaza could be a decisive issue for this small group , Which, in turn, can be a decisive factor for tight race.
He explained: “In urban seats, where labor faces strong independent challenges, children of 16 and 17 years can help tip the balance. All of the youngest constituencies in the country are also places where labor is under pressure from ‘Gaza independent’. In fact, there are seven constituencies where the majority of the labor on an independent candidate is small in 16 and 17 years.
“Politics looks rapidly unstable, even numerically small changes in voters may have excluded local effects, and can reopen the political map over time.”
Major trends with partition votes for not voting
Lord Haward has also underlined some of the major UK trends, it is likely to see when it votes for a new corort, especially “voting is going everywhere and there is no vote”.
Describing children of 16 and 17 years as “heavy liquidity”, he said that the first possibility would be that the group’s votes would be scattered. He explained: “All indications are that labor will not be a great beneficiary of the age group of those who vote, as voting indications are that they are more likely to divide their votes everywhere.”
Secondly, Lord Haward predicted less voting than children aged 16 and 17 based on 2024 election data. “The last election was voted throughout the board due to a 10 percent decrease in the last election.” “But the lowest voting was the lowest among the youngest people. Therefore, there is no reason to believe in a single younger group that they will not follow the trends of those who are actually very low voting demographic cooms.”
He said that the decline in birth rate also has the ability to reduce the impact of new adolescent voters, just because that age group is expected to shrink in the coming years.
Independent Has approached the labor party for comment.
