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chancellor Rachel Reeves “Very little Christmas cheer” has been offered after official figures showed government borrowing for November exceeded forecasts.
The Office for National Statistics (ONS) said borrowing last month was £11.7 billion, down £1.9 billion from November last year and November’s lowest level in four years due to a sharp fall in loan interest payments.
But the figure was higher than the £10 billion expected by most economists and the £8.6 billion forecast in March by the UK’s independent fiscal watchdog. Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR).
OBR monthly forecast Budget Not available until mid-January on November 26th ons,
Borrowing for the eight months of the financial year so far was higher than expected, at £132.3 billion – £10 billion more than the same period a year earlier and £16.8 billion more than the OBR forecast in March.
This was partly due to an additional £1.8 billion spent on winter fuel payments after the government made a U-turn on its decision to severely restrict the payments, opting instead to give the payments to all pensioners except those earning more than £35,000 a year.
This helped boost borrowing by £3.9 billion in the seven months to October.
Elliot Jordan-Doke, senior UK economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics, said there was “very little Christmas cheer for the Chancellor” in the latest data.
He said the Chancellor’s “fiscal plans rest on shaky foundations”, with data showing that Britain’s public finances “remain weak” despite a low out-turn for November.
The figure was dampened by a decline in debt interest payments on borrowings, which fell by £200 million year-on-year to £3.4 billion and were the lowest November level for six years.
Last month’s data was also helped by higher tax receipts, as a rise in National Insurance Contributions (NICs) in April pushed mandatory social contributions up by £3 billion from £17 billion in November.
Public sector net debt, including the Bank of England, reached £2.93 trillion at the end of November, about 95.6% of gross domestic product (GDP) and 0.3 percentage points higher than a year earlier. It remains at levels last seen in the early 1960s.
Mr Jordan-Doke said: “Ms Reeves has staked too much of her fiscal credibility on a huge tax rise at the end of the forecast period. But we think today’s figures further illustrate the shaky foundation of that gamble.
“Revenues continue to underperform, and the smorgasbord approach to tax increases relies on distorted tax increases with uncertain yields.
“We also have serious doubts about the government’s ability to meet the expenditure cuts announced in the Budget.”
Treasury Chief Secretary James Murray said debt interest payments underlined the need to reduce borrowing.
He said: “One in every £10 we spend on loan interest – money that could otherwise be invested in public services.
“That’s why last month the Chancellor delivered a Budget that delivers on our pledge to cut debt and borrowing.”
shadow chancellor mail stride It said borrowing so far this year was “the highest on record outside the pandemic”.
“Yet in the Budget, Labor chose even more reckless spending, and accumulated more debt,” he said.
“Confidence remains the missing ingredient,” said Martin Beck at WPI Strategy.
He said, “A clear and credible pro-growth strategy from the government – and an end to the pessimism surrounding the UK economy – could matter as much for the public finances as the specifics of future tax and spending plans.”