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Ahmedabad, Oct 21 (IANS) The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has predicted light to moderate rain or thundershowers over parts of south Gujarat and adjoining union territories in the next few days.
According to the latest IMD bulletin, Dangs, Tapi, Navsari, Valsad and Union Territory of Daman, Dadra and Nagar Haveli may receive intermittent rain till October 25, while the rest of the state is expected to remain dry.
From October 25, weather conditions are likely to become stable, with dry weather continuing across Gujarat. Meteorologists attribute the unpredictable post-monsoon rains to the presence of three active weather systems in the region.
These include a clearly marked low pressure area over the south-east Arabian Sea, a newly formed low pressure area in the Bay of Bengal and an upper air cyclonic circulation formed off the Kerala coast.
The IMD on Tuesday observed that the low pressure system over the south-east Arabian Sea may turn into a depression within 24 hours while moving slowly westwards. Simultaneously, under the influence of an upper air cyclonic circulation over the Bay of Bengal, another low pressure area developed over the south-western Bay, extending up to 7.6 km above mean sea level, and is expected to strengthen further over the next 36 hours.
Besides this, a cyclonic circulation off the Kerala coast and a trough extending from the Arabian Sea to the Bay of Bengal continue to influence the atmospheric conditions. A separate system over northwest Rajasthan, extending up to central Madhya Pradesh, and a Western Disturbance at the mid-tropospheric level – about north of 66°E longitude and 25°N latitude – also remain active.
Overall, weather experts say south Gujarat may see sporadic post-monsoon activity during the week before clear skies from October 26 onwards, marking a transition to a dry and stable early winter phase for the state. Gujarat has recorded nearly 90 per cent of the long period average (LPA) rainfall till the end of August, with the total seasonal rainfall being around 792.93 mm, while the normal rainfall is below 882 mm.
In different regions, the percentage varies: South Gujarat has 93.7 per cent of normal, East-Central has about 88.6 per cent, Saurashtra has 84.3 per cent and Kutch has 85.1 per cent. By early September, some data showed that the statewide average had climbed above 100 per cent of the LPA – for example, 102.89 per cent as of a certain date, nearly 108 per cent in South Gujarat, 107 per cent in North Gujarat and 91 per cent in Saurashtra.
–IANS
janvi/dpb