No wonder Labor is now desperate for a general election and Rishi Sunak has, in Keir Starmer’s words, “got it in the bottle” and is sticking to his plan not to hold one until the autumn at the earliest, This is a huge disappointment to the Labor Party.

British pollster Sir John Curtice publicly stated, “There is a 99% chance labor Form the next government.”

What could go wrong for Labor between now and voters’ verdict?

Curtis’ one percent failure rate is reassuring Sir Keir Starmerbut no one around him thought victory was a foregone conclusion.

No one is as wrong as Cherie Blair was before the 1997 election, when she spoke to ITN’s political editor about “when” rather than “if” her family would be in Downing Street.

A variety of party staff, including the shadow cabinet, regional organizers, special advisers and press officers, were summoned to headquarters for a pep talk on “no complacency”.

Trump’s 2016 victory a warning against complacency

Earlier this year, Starmer’s campaign manager Morgan McSweeney even produced a slideshow titled “Polls can’t predict the future.”

It cited recent examples from countries such as Australia, Germany and Norway, where parties continued to lead in the polls but failed to deliver on the day. Trump’s defeat of Hillary Clinton in 2016 is Exhibit A.

There are still three months to go until the country’s general election, and three months closer to it.

Labor continued to maintain a significant lead of around 18 points over the next three months, a gap that had persisted for two years since Boris Johnson was in trouble.

Any local difficulties for Starmer pale in comparison to his ongoing troubles. conservative party.

Although he tried to point to a slight improvement in economic conditions, Rishi Sunak Haunted by further resignations.

Nonetheless, the Labor leadership is prepared for a “tightening of the polls”.

The local elections in England and Wales on May 2 will be a big test of “real votes in real ballot boxes” that politicians always say they prefer.

In the last round of elections, the Conservatives won 40% of the vote, while Labor won 30%. If Labor is to achieve its pre-set targets, the tables will need to flip, with the Tories falling to around 20.

This means the Conservatives will lose a net loss of about 500 seats – more than half of the seats they currently hold.

Read more from Sky News:
How Tory MPs can get rid of Sunak – and who could replace him

Possible paths to summer elections

Public interests, such as voter turnout, tend to be higher in large mayoral races.

In London, the government has changed the rules to “first pass” to hurt Labour’s chances of winning Sadiq Khan Win a third term.

Some conservative activists are also making dirty attacks on him – as a grim online video this week showed, which included footage from New York City and was accompanied by questionable crime statistics.

Khan said it was his toughest election yet but it seemed unlikely he would be defeated by Conservative candidate Susan Hall in the capital’s mayoral race.

By any measure, it would be a major shock if Labor failed to win back the election Blackpool South Council by-electionthe Conservatives hope to bury it in the excitement of local election day.

Tories have higher hopes elsewhere Birmingham council is effectively bankrupt.

It would be a big blow for the West Midlands if Andy Street is not re-elected as mayor. Especially if you add in the failure of Sunak’s controversial poster boy Lord (Ben) Houchen in the Tees Valley.

Conversely, if Labor underperforms and the Conservatives retain some trophy mayoralties, there will be renewed speculation that Sunak may contest a general election in June. Not everyone agrees.

A dignitary from the days of John Mayor observed that “it is difficult to persuade the Prime Minister to fail now, because he will only lose worse later”.

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If the Conservatives perform very poorly in local elections, the summer general election could go the other way.

In this case, Sunak’s allies want him to travel to the country rather than face a vote of no confidence from Conservative MPs.

Labour’s will to win

Assuming the government has struggled through the summer, Parliament will finalize Rwandan deportation legislation when it returns from the Easter holidays in mid-April.

The Conservatives hope that if flights take off soon after that, it could boost popularity or at least reduce the threat from reformists and others on the right.

Sir Keir Starmer may also find himself dealing with fractious elements in his party this summer.There are no signs of peace in the conflict areas between the two countries Israel-Gaza or Ukraine-Russia.

Jeremy Corbyn In both clashes, Starmer’s instincts were not shared by his supporters.

Labour’s potential voters include many who are pro-Palestinian.Decision divided on whether to resume Diane Abbott Internal party elections are coming, as is the election of the Labor candidate in Corbyn’s Islington North constituency.

Greater Manchester Police have reopened their investigation into the deputy leader Angela Renner allegedly failed to pay capital gains taxes At her house.

At the moment, Labor’s will to win is strong, while the Conservatives’ will is weak. This, coupled with strict leadership discipline, should be able to maintain broad party unity.

Some on the left and right will continue to speak out – amplified by the voices of many Tory sympathizers in the media.

Within days of this week, left-wing polemicist Owen Jones announced his resignation from the Labor Party and Peter Mandelson sounded the alarm on behalf of the business community over Rayner’s proposed new deal for workers.

PM likely to go to vote date after tough meeting

Judging from the current situation, the party congress season in September should proceed as usual.

If they carry on as usual, any Labor dissatisfaction will surface in Liverpool and the Conservatives will try to use Birmingham to launch a general election campaign.

Some expect Sunak to use his leadership speech to confirm polling day as Thursday, October 24, the day he will officially serve as prime minister for two years.

Two hawkish former cabinet secretaries told me that their working assumption was that this would not happen until November 14 or 21, after the November 5 US election.in the case of trump cardhe is bound to throw his oar into the British political arena.

I’m sure no Prime Minister would ruin Christmas by pushing back the final statutory date of late January 2025, but in extreme circumstances December 19th is still a possibility this year and hopefully some repeatability Boris JohnsonTips for differential turnout in 2019.

Better late than never. It looks like Sir Keir Starmer is still months away from the general election that Curtis has promised.