A year ago, Saudi Arabia was preparing to recognize Israel under a normalization deal. It is believed that this will fundamentally change the situation in the Middle East and Iran and its allies will be isolated. Some say that if Saudi Arabia signs a normalization deal with Israel, no progress will be made in the creation of Palestine, but that issue will be brushed aside. But Israel’s normalization deal with Saudi Arabia was put on hold after Israel’s cooperation with Hamas and the assassination of Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar. Now, Saudi Arabia is improving relations with its traditional nemesis Iran, not Israel.
Saudi Arabia has also now stressed that it will not reach any diplomatic agreement with Israel until it recognizes a Palestinian state. This change in Saudi Arabia’s position is considered very important.
Saudi-Iran relations strengthen
The process of easing diplomatic tensions in the Middle East is underway, but it is not what Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu imagined. He has repeatedly said his government can reach a deal with Saudi Arabia. But things did not go as he wished, and Iran’s relations with regional countries became increasingly closer.
This month, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi met with his Gulf counterpart counterparts. At this meeting, the Gulf states assured Iran that they would remain neutral in the war with Israel. This conference will work to reduce the shared hatred that has existed for centuries.
Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi later visited Saudi Arabia and then other countries in the region, including Iraq and Oman, in an attempt to ease tensions. He also visited Jordan before traveling to Egypt and Türkiye. According to Iranian news media, this is the first visit to Egypt by an Iranian foreign minister in 12 years.
While Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu rejects the idea of a Palestinian state, Saudi officials talk about a two-state solution in speeches and media interviews. Saudi Arabia, considered the leader of the Arab world, says an independent Palestinian state is the only way to normalize relations between Israel and Saudi Arabia.
What has changed over the past year?
After the war in Gaza broke out, Israel stopped providing aid there. Thousands of people died in the war, including large numbers of women and children. Because of this, it is impossible for the Saudi leadership to ignore the issue of a Palestinian state.
“What’s happening in Gaza is a blow to Israel’s normalization deal in the region,” said Ali Shihabi, a Saudi businessman and member of the advisory board for Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman’s ambitious Neom project. “Saudi Arabia sees the situation in Gaza as it is and it is not right to have any relationship with Israel. Now, Saudi Arabia will not normalize relations with Israel unless Israel changes its stance and shows real commitment to a Palestinian state.
Currently, Saudi Arabia and its Gulf allies are skeptical of the sincerity of Iran’s diplomatic efforts. While two of Iran’s allies, Hamas and Hezbollah, have been severely attacked by Israel, Iran continues to arm and support its third ally, Yemen’s Houthi rebels. Houthi rebels have also been attacking Saudi Arabia.
“But as long as the Iranians continue to extend a hand of friendship to Saudi Arabia, the Saudi leadership will continue to accept it,” Shehabi said. If Iran is serious, there will be a real realignment of the Middle East in the future.
Saudi public pressure mounts on bin Salman
Palace insiders such as Ali Shibahi believe there is no democracy in Saudi Arabia. However, the Saudi Crown Prince is sensitive to public opinion. Over the past year, the people of Saudi Arabia have become even harsher on Israel.
The Gulf region has the youngest population in the world. The average age of Saudis in 2022 will be 29 years old. Many Saudi Arabian citizens are horrified by the horrific images from Gaza on social media, where they also write anti-Israel articles. In light of this, Saudi Arabia’s position on the normalization agreement with Israel is changing.
The Saudi Crown Prince has recently advocated for the establishment of a Palestinian state in public speeches.
On September 18, the Crown Prince stated in his speech to the Senior Advisory Council that “Saudi Arabia will not stop its tireless efforts to establish an independent Palestinian state with East Jerusalem as its capital.” We confirm that without this, Saudi Arabia will not stop its efforts to establish an independent Palestinian state with East Jerusalem as its capital. Will establish diplomatic relations with Israel.