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DDonald Trump may now be his party’s biggest obstacle Control the Senate The Republican president has repeatedly undermined members of his caucus, while his foreign policy has angered members of his party and fueled divisions.
After the Democratic election defeat in 2024, Republicans hold a 53-47 majority in the upper house of Congress. It will likely take Democrats multiple election cycles to regain the majority through much of 2025, if not longer.
But as January passes halfway, the prospects for Republicans to retain their majority in November are looking bleaker. While few party members in the House will say it out loud, the reason is: Donald Trump.
democrats Need to win four seats Retake the secret room. Trump’s intervention in several of them key match cannot be ignored, and in any case makes it harder, not easier, for Republican incumbents to keep their seats. Politico It was reported last week that Trump has flatly refused to endorse three Senate Republicans in this year’s races: John Cornyn of Texas, Bill Cassidy of Louisiana and Susan Collins of Maine.
His latest intervention at the weekend takes things a step further. Saturday, President Posted on Truth Social He will support Louisiana Rep. Julia Letlow as a candidate if she challenges Cassidy in the Republican primary. The senator has been trying to fend off primary challengers for months — and Trump’s post on Saturday could intensify the momentum against him. Politico Report Letlow is now preparing to bid for the seat.
For Cassidy, things still hold up. He has retained a sizable campaign war chest, having raised $17 million so far in the 2025-2026 cycle, Politico reported earlier this month. He also holds a seat in the deep red state, which would essentially nullify his victory in November if he survives the primary.
But for Senate Majority Leader John Thune, things are not so good. Thune is actively working to protect Cassidy and may now be forced to continue hosting fundraisers and spending resources to protect the senator, as he has done for months.
For Senate Republican leaders, the motivation is twofold: protect the seat, and protect a reliable leadership ally.
That has the potential to conflict with Trump, but it would equally waste his time and resources because his attention could be spent on other races, such as North Carolina, where Gov. Roy Cooper looks to be dominating in a race against former Republican National Committee chairman Michael Whatley.
Trump’s move to endorse Letlow raises another question: Will he endorse Ken Paxton of Texas? The MAGA-loyal, scandal-plagued Texas attorney general is running against Cornyn in a Senate primary, and Democrats like Reps. Jasmine Crockett and James Talarico believe they will gain the seat in an upset in November if Cornyn loses the primary.
Like Cassidy, Thune worked in fundraising and traveled to Texas to help protect seats that could be a Republican swing this year.
In Maine, things are a little different. Susan Collins is not a Trump ally, and her association with the president does not help her. But the Trump administration still isn’t offering help to keep Thune happy: Local news reports suggest state residents Preparing for an onslaught of ICE agents, Protests sparked in cities like Portland, and Collins complained to a Huffington Post reporter: “To me, I don’t think there’s a reason for a large number of ICE agents to get involved.”
The surge in ICE activity in Maine is likely to fuel negative sentiment among Democrats and independents. Collins has a reputation as an independent, drawing votes from both camps. Anger over law enforcement could also boost the image of Gov. Janet Mills, who is running in the Democratic primary and could become Collins’ opponent in the fall. Mills’ opponent Graham Plattner News reports about the expected surge are also being used for campaigning.
In Washington, Senate Republicans have done little to show voters recent progress. Negotiations to extend Obamacare health plan subsidies appear to have broken down amid continued opposition from the White House, while the president’s provocation over Greenland has rattled Republicans after a vote on war powers on Venezuela led to one of the caucus’s deepest divisions yet.
While House Republicans have publicly complained about Speaker Mike Johnson and the House’s subservience to the White House, Thune may have the toughest job in Washington, D.C. right now.
For the Senate leader, who has a responsibility to protect the majority while his most important ally is mired in unpopularity, refuses to give allies a break and appears to have no interest in helping defend.