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The IEA’s World Energy Outlook estimates that, going forward, the South Asian bloc, led by India, will be the main driver of energy demand. These figures come at a time when the demand for green energy sources is increasing in India’s domestic market.
While developed countries have historically produced large greenhouse emissions, India is currently the world’s third largest emitter. However, it is not global commitments that necessitate India’s transition to green energy. High climate vulnerabilities outweigh the country’s need to be a low carbon economy. The IEA data reveals some trends that point India on the right path to going green.
rapid energy demand
India’s energy demand is contributing largely to the global energy demand. As China’s economy is expected to mature further, demand will be led by India. Indonesia and other emerging markets.
The IEA’s forecasts for the parameters associated with both the described and current policy-based examples support this estimate. “We see not only a huge expansion of renewable energy, but in our scenarios, India is the largest source of oil demand growth, the second largest source of electricity demand growth, and the third largest source of natural gas demand growth worldwide. When you look at a wide range of fuels and technologies, it seems that if you want to understand global trends, you really need to pay attention to what’s happening in India, and we certainly do.” Very conscious of it,” Tim Gould, the IEA’s chief energy economist, said.
The country’s energy demand levers have been pulled aggressively, and not just because of economic growth; It also gets stretched due to excessive heat. According to IEEFA, the country is witnessing an increase in electricity demand during rising temperatures. UN data also shows that India continues to be at high risk of heatwaves due to the changing climate. This will only increase the energy demand driven by residents and industries from here.
Solar and wind are ahead of other renewable energies
According to IEA data, the share of solar and wind in the energy mix will increase from 2% to 20% in 2050. While coal will form a larger part of the mix, solar photovoltaic and wind power have seen the fastest growth in India. The data also indicates that by 2035, one-quarter or more of electricity generation in the country will come from these two sources, putting the country on par with China, the European Union and Australia.
Solar PV modules are being adopted in India due to their affordability, but they also have some drawbacks. “Solar is an important part of the solution, but it can’t do everything. We need to balance technologies, but also make sure that we’re building that infrastructure, as well as storage that allows us to make the best use of that solar energy because in some markets where you’ve had a large expansion of solar generation, you’ve also seen an increase in curtailments, and to some extent, that may be economically rational, but if you don’t have the grid, So you risk wasting some valuable resources,” says Gould.
Both solar PV and wind energy generation and storage fluctuate depending on the afternoon surge, weather and seasonal changes. These changes require energy infrastructure for storage and other resources to maintain supply. This makes sources like coal play a new role in ensuring power supply during such scenarios and are not completely taken out of the energy system.
Need for energy infrastructure upgrade
With increasing reliance on solar PV and wind power and serious climate risks in the form of heatwaves, India’s power grid is set to experience higher demand. Stating that the demand for electricity is going to exceed the demand for energy globally,
“As air conditioner ownership expands, there are some new uses, and as countries electrify their transportation fleets, or they electrify other new sectors of the economy, particularly in the high-tech sector, with data centers, etc., it just adds to the sense that electricity is, in a way, the fuel of the future,” Gold said.
A change of this magnitude in India requires systems that ensure that electricity from renewable energy reaches people.
“In our view, over the next 10 years, India will need to add 2 lakh km of new transmission. One of the things you see globally in these trends is that the expansion in investment in generation is not matched by the same rate of infrastructure expansion. I think India has done a good job with green corridors and the way it has managed to build out its transmission network, but in a fast-growing context like India, there is still a lot to be done,” Gold said. Said.
As India races to become one of the most important energy markets, the question is not whether it can scale up renewable energy, but whether its grid and infrastructure can be quickly prepared to support the transition.