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More planting is expected to help the world’s second-largest wheat producer increase production, reduce local prices and potentially allow limited exports of wheat flour to New Delhi.
“Wheat sowing and production are expected to surpass all previous record levels due to higher soil moisture this time due to increased rainfall,” Nitin Gupta, senior vice president at agricultural commodities trader Olam Agri India, told Reuters.
India’s key wheat-growing northwestern region was inundated with 161% above average rainfall in October, contributing to 49% of the country’s overall surplus in the month.
According to data from the Ministry of Agriculture and Farmers Welfare, wheat was sown in 6.62 million hectares as of November 14, 17% more than a year earlier.
Based on the average estimate of eleven industry executives, planting for the 2025/26 season is expected to increase by about 5% from last year’s record 34.16 million hectares.
Industry officials said wheat acreage is expected to remain stable in key northern states of Haryana and Punjab, which benefit from reliable irrigation, while farmers in Uttar Pradesh, Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan are likely to shift from less thirsty crops like gram to wheat.
Decision to increase wheat purchase price by 6.6% New Delhi Shivaji Roller Flour Mills managing director Ajay Goyal said the Rs 2,585 per 100 kg price for the new season crop is also expected to attract farmers towards the grain.
Optimum wheat yield depends on cold weather during the critical period from January to March, said Olam’s Gupta.
According to the India Meteorological Department, the La Nina weather pattern, which is historically associated with colder than normal winters across northern India, is likely to continue from December to February.
“The temperatures have been falling in northern and central India for the past few days, which is good news for the wheat crop,” said a Mumbai-based dealer with a global trading house.
India banned wheat exports in 2022, extending the ban in 2023 after crops failed again due to extreme heat. The adverse conditions contributed to depleting wheat stocks, pushing prices to record highs and fueling speculation that the country would need imports for the first time since 2017.
Supply has since improved and India is expected to have a record crop of 117.5 million metric tons in 2025.