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Ruhl said India has already begun chartering ships from the Middle East to replace a portion of its Russian crude imports, indicating that replacement is happening on the ground, even as the political messaging from New Delhi remains broad.
US sanctions on Russian oil companies Rosneft and Lukoil go into effect today, creating uncertainty for about 48 million barrels of Russian crude currently at sea. Many of these shipments were headed to India and China, but are now looking for alternative routes as restrictions complicate their final destination.
Ruhl described the global system as being in the midst of a slow but steady “adjustment phase”, with new oil flows expected to stabilize over the next few weeks.
Since the beginning of the Ukraine war, India sharply increased its imports of subsidized Russian crude, refining it for domestic consumption and exporting part of the production – a practice that had frustrated Washington. But with sanctions posing new obstacles to Russian logistics, Indian refiners are now moving to secure Middle Eastern barrels more aggressively.
Globally, crude oil prices remain under pressure as stranded Russian oil continues to float without a home. But Ruhl believes India’s import bill is unlikely to rise meaningfully as the market remains well supplied and Russian rebates had declined sharply even before the sanctions were imposed.
The change in India’s crude strategy comes as Washington is pushing for stronger alignment on energy security. India’s oil imports from the United States rose from about 3% to 10.7% in 2024, according to US Treasury data in October. New Delhi also recently announced that 10% of its LPG requirements will be met from the US.
Ruhl said that while political signals will continue to be forthcoming, the realignment of crude oil flows will depend on how quickly Moscow can set up new transportation routes — and whether winter production disruptions increase pressure on Russian supplies.
Watch the attached video for the full conversation.