A study has claimed that if the temperature increases by 3 degrees, 90% of the Himalayan ranges will have to face drought throughout the year.
New Delhi:
According to new research, if global warming increases by 3 degrees Celsius, about 90 percent of the Himalayan region will remain dry for up to a year.
The findings, published in the journal Climatic Change, show that 80 per cent of the increased human risk of heat stress in India could be avoided by adhering to the Paris Agreement’s temperature targets of limiting global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius, Whereas the temperature increases by 3 degrees Celsius. ,
The team, led by researchers at the University of East Anglia (UEA) in the UK, determined how climate change risks to human and natural systems increase at the national level as levels of global warming increase.
A collection of eight studies – all focused on India, Brazil, China, Egypt, Ethiopia and Ghana – shows that for each additional addition there is a substantial increase in droughts, floods, declines in crop yields and loss of biodiversity and natural capital. it occurs. Degree of global warming.
It found that pollination in India is reduced by half at 3-4 degrees of global warming, while at 1.5 degrees it is reduced by a quarter.
Limiting warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius allows half the country to act as a haven for biodiversity, compared with 6 percent at 3 degrees, the researchers said.
The team found a very large increase in the risk of agricultural land drought with a 3°C temperature increase – more than 50 percent of agricultural land in each country studied is projected to be exposed to severe drought for more than a year. Period of 30 years.
However, limiting global warming to 1.5°C would reduce the risk of drought on agricultural land by between 21 percent (India) and 61 percent (Ethiopia) as well as economic losses caused by riverine flooding. There will be a decrease. This happens when rivers and streams burst their banks and water flows into nearby low-lying areas.
The researchers said the increase in human risk from severe drought in six countries was reduced by 20-80 percent at 1.5 degrees Celsius compared to 3 degrees Celsius.
Economic losses associated with sea level rise are projected to increase in coastal countries, but will increase more slowly if warming is limited to 1.5 degrees Celsius, he said.
The researchers warned that more effort is needed to reduce global warming, as policies currently in place globally are likely to result in a 3°C increase in global warming.
One paper explored risks to plants and vertebrates due to increased global warming, and another developed a new natural capital risk register for each of the six countries that also included projected changes in risk arising from future human population changes. Were included.
This combination shows that many regions in the six countries are already at high natural capital risk at 1.5°C, when the impacts of growing human populations are taken into account.
The findings also revealed that expansion of protected area networks is necessary to provide climate-resilient biodiversity conservation.
“The results presented in this collection confirm the need for the implementation of climate policies in line with the boundaries of the Paris Agreement if the risk of widespread and increasing climate change is to be avoided,” said Professor Rachel Warren of UEA, lead author of the paper.
Warren said, “They provide additional confirmation of the rapid increase in climate change threats with global warming found in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) 2022 report, which identifies that with every additional increase in global warming “How the risk of serious outcomes increases.” ,
Although these studies focus on risks from only six countries, other countries are projected to experience similar issues, the researchers said.
He said greater emphasis is needed on both climate change mitigation and climate change adaptation to avoid large increases in risks to both human and natural systems.
“For example, a good way to deal with the impacts of climate change on natural systems and to sequester carbon from the atmosphere is to restore ecosystems to their natural state, especially if warming can be kept to 2 degrees Celsius or less. This has the additional benefit of restoring the natural capital bank in these areas,” said study co-author Jeff Price from UEA.
This work focuses on developing countries because they are more vulnerable to climate change than others. Spanning the continents of Asia, Africa and South America, the case studies present examples from countries both large and small and cover many levels of socio-economic development.
The risks assessed are additional risks due to anthropogenic or human-induced climate change consistent with increased global warming compared to a baseline of risk levels in 1961–1990, when warming was approximately 0.3 degrees above pre-industrial levels. Celsius was high.
Together the study provides a harmonized assessment of projected changes in the exposure of humans and lands to climate-related hazards, such as drought, water stress, river and coastal flooding, and the projected impacts of climate change on biodiversity, for the six countries. As to the economic and social implications of climate risks.
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