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sir keir starmer And Rachel Reeves If this happens then cabinet will have to face opposition chancellor breaks down of labor manifesto pledge and raise income tax In Budget later this month.
Earlier this week, it was reported that the Treasury was considering the possibility of raising rates by 2p, as well as cutting National Insurance by 2p. Just last month this newspaper It was reported that Ms. Reeves is Consideration of changes to the top 45p rate.
Independent It is learned that many senior ministers are worried about breaking it manifesto pledge don’t pick up income tax, tub Or Employee National Insurance contributions could prevent any hope of political reform, with the party’s defeat in the election.
A senior minister said, “Those who say we should not stick to that pledge do not understand how important it was in winning the elections.”
“Elections are hard to win. They’re especially hard.” Labor To win. We don’t win many of them. “So breaking that pledge comes with a significant risk of losing voter confidence.”
Another minister suggested: “If people do not believe what we say, we will have to struggle to win the elections.”
Chancellor of the Duchy of Lancaster Darren Jones, new welfare secretary Pat McFadden, Home Secretary Shabana Mahmood and Communities Secretary Steve Reid are understood to be among those raising concerns over the tax rises.
This analysis is shared by leading pollsters including Professor Sir John Curtice, Who have compared it to the “tuition fees moment” which was extremely damaging for the Lib Dems in 2010 when they trebled them despite promising to abolish them.
Sir Keir’s government has stuck to the tax promise for months, but on Wednesday when Tory leader Kemi Badenoch asked directly whether he would honor the pledge, Prime Minister refused to say,
However, options are running out chancellorWhich faces a black hole of between £30bn and £40bn in its spending plans, economists are urging it to take a risk and raise income taxes rather than try a “hotchpotch” of smaller taxes.
But a number of Cabinet ministers want the Chancellor to “take another look at welfare” and find savings overall Budget Of £1.3 trillion across various departments.
There are already concerns from senior ministers about the possibility of a mansion tax on properties worth £2m or more, while some are criticizing “anti-ambition” taxes such as tub On private school fees.
However it is understood that significant cuts have been refused because Downing Street and Number 11 do not feel they can overrule Labor backbenchers following the welfare rebellion earlier this year.
But leading pollsters have warned that breaking the manifesto commitment could put the government at the point of no return with voters.
professor curtis Said: “I think clearly there’s a risk that, like tuition fees for the Liberal Democrats in 2010 – it was seen as a key part of their selling proposition.”
He also said: “Labour is hoping to put the blame on the Tories and Brexit. The trouble now is, you could have said this 16 months ago.”
Prominent pollster Robert Hayward agreed that the move would not have a major impact in the short term, but pointed to Techni polling which showed that less than one in five voters (19 per cent) now had confidence in Sir Keir’s government.
Lord Hayward said: “I think this will come up on the list of ‘and one more thing’ issues among voters at the next election when it comes to reasons not to vote Labour.”
He suggested that if Ms. Reeves went for a hike, there would be little difference in the level. “The impact for 1 o’clock will be the same as for 2 o’clock,” he said.
Peter Kellner, former chairman of YouGov, said: “The Chancellor missed two opportunities to mitigate the election damage of breaking his tax promises: immediately after the election, using the Tory black hole argument, or this spring, when [Donald] Trump overturned world trade rules and raised tariffs.
“It’s very difficult now. If she can sell the whole package as economically smart and socially progressive she can get away with it. The best chance she has of pulling it off is 50-50.”