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New Delhi/Patna, Nov 11 (IANS) The National Democratic Alliance is set for a comprehensive victory in most areas of Bihar in the recently concluded 2025 assembly elections, according to the Matrice News Communications exit poll released on Tuesday.
With a statewide vote share estimate of 48.4 per cent, which translates into 147 to 167 seats, the NDA maintains a commanding lead in four of the five key constituencies, while the Grand Alliance (MGB) is struggling to retain its ground, especially in Seemanchal.
In Mithilanchal, which has 71 seats, the NDA is expected to get 50 to 55 seats with 47.7 per cent votes, while the MGB will get 18 to 23 seats with 36.5 per cent votes. The region, known for its cultural and linguistic identity, shows consistent support for the ruling coalition.
Similarly, in Magadha, which has 51 constituencies, the NDA is leading with 30 to 35 seats and 48.8 per cent vote share, while the MGB is trailing with 17 to 22 seats with 36.2 per cent. Bhojpur, the largest constituency with 67 seats, reflects this trend. The NDA is expected to get 37 to 42 seats with 48.4 percent votes, while the MGB is expected to get 20 to 25 seats with 36.1 percent votes.
Angika, covering 30 seats in the eastern part of the state, is also leaning towards the NDA, which is projected to get 20 to 23 seats with 47.9 per cent vote share, while the MGB is projected to get 7 to 10 seats with 37.1 per cent vote share.
Seemanchal is the only area where MGB has an edge. With 24 seats, the opposition alliance is projected to win 8 to 10 seats with 49.9 percent vote share, while the NDA is limited to 10 to 12 seats despite 39.1 percent votes. The remaining 2 to 3 seats are likely to go to others, reflecting the region’s specific socio-political dynamics and minority voter influence.
Among Bihar’s 243 assembly constituencies, the NDA’s regional dominance is almost uniform outside Seemanchal, where vote consolidation among Muslim and backward communities has strengthened the MGB.
The exit poll, conducted between November 6 and November 11 through random sampling and CATI methods with a sample size of 66,087, has a margin of error of 3 per cent. The survey highlights the NDA’s broad appeal in Angika, Bhojpur, Magadh and Mithilanchal, driven by growth stories and continuity of governance.
Conversely, Seemanchal remains a center of resistance for the ruling parties, underscoring persistent regional fault lines in Bihar’s electoral landscape. Final results expected in the coming days will confirm whether these estimates are correct.
–IANS
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