Just three days before the Haryana Assembly elections, Dera Sacha Sauda chief Ram Rahim has been released from jail on parole. He emerged from Sunaria Jail in Rohtak amid tight security on Wednesday morning. However, the Election Commission granted him 20 days of parole based on several conditions. As a result, he can neither stay in Haryana nor contest elections. But Ram Rahim’s followers must have given out the message that Baba is well taken care of under the BJP. To ensure this message does not translate into votes, the main opposition party opposes Baba’s release. This means it is understandable how influential Ram Rahim is in Haryana. Congress had written to the Election Commission of India to express its objections, but it was ignored. However, if we look at the last few elections, we see that Baba’s magic is no longer working. Nonetheless, if the demand for baba still exists, there are many reasons behind it. Let’s see how Baba’s supporters can change the face of any election.
1- This is how Baba’s disciples will work in more than 30 seats in nine districts.
Many reports published in newspapers claimed that Ram Rahim had influence over more than 30 seats in nine districts of Haryana. More than 5 million people in the state are his followers. Baba’s coming out on leave sends a message to his supporters that if the BJP government in Haryana remains in power, Baba will continue to be allowed to come out in this way. The communication network in the camp is very organized. It’s completely organized. In the age of social media, a WhatsApp message is all it takes to get the job done. Especially in Dera Sacha Sauda, ​​there is a political affairs committee. This committee in the camp decides who to support. The workings of the Dras PC are well illustrated in Prakash Jha’s Bevseries Ashram. Some of Baba’s special disciples showed Baba the benefits and losses arising out of any political issue. Dad made a decision after understanding all aspects.
2-How much demand does Dalit voters have for Baba?
The biggest fight in the Haryana Assembly elections is over Dalit votes. Because Jatt’s votes have some connection with the Congress. Punjabi Hindu and backward votes mostly went to the BJP. Some of the Baniya and Brahmin votes may go to the Congress. About 20% of the state’s population is Dalit voters. Obviously, every political party wants to gain Dalit votes in some way. The INLD has formed an alliance with the BSP for Dalit votes, while the JJP has joined with the Azad Samaj Party. But it is learned that the BSP and the LSP are not able to do anything special in the state this time. Judging from the Aam Aadmi Party’s campaign, it appears to have laid down its arms in this election. Pradeep Narula, a senior journalist with knowledge of Haryana politics, said Rahul Gandhi has got his hands on Selia and Bhupendra Hooda but the two remain far apart in their hearts. The recent insults hurled at Selja by Houda supporters will certainly have some repercussions. Narula said granting leave to Ram Rahim before the elections would definitely have an impact. Congress, in particular, will suffer some losses. In fact, Jat dominance in Haryana villages remains the same as before. The SC community still can’t mess with the Jats. With Baba’s release, many votes from the Dalit community are likely to shift to the BJP.
3-How much of Baba’s magic power remains after being imprisoned?
There is no doubt that Baba’s magic has been waning ever since he was imprisoned. But even if he is released from jail, no case against him has been proven in court and how much benefit the Dera chief has provided to the BJP remains a matter of dispute. If we look at facts instead of logic, we will find that Baba’s support does not make any difference many times.
In 2014, the BJP won the Haryana Assembly elections with an absolute majority for the first time. Despite the support of Ram Rahim, Baba failed to allow the BJP to win elections in areas where it had influence, but in Sirsa, where Ram Rahim is headquartered, the BJP failed to win a single seats. Dera Sacha Sauda won seat in Sirsa.
Even in the 2019 elections, the BJP failed to win in the Sirsa elections. Likewise, in 2012, despite Captain Saputnik reaching Sirsa to seek Baba’s blessings, Baba could not save Captain Amarinder’s sinking ship. Similarly, Dera Sacha Sauda had also openly opposed INLD’s candidacy from the Dabwali seat, but without success. In 2009, Ajay Chautala also managed to win this seat despite opposition from Dera.
However, elections are won and lost for more than one reason. Many factors combine to make any political party successful in elections. There is no doubt that Baba’s supporters voted for one of his moves. This can be understood in this way, when Baba was imprisoned, about 38 supporters killed themselves by putting police bullets in the chest without hesitation.
