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After several months on the sidelines of US-led peace talks, Europe trying to get up To the challenge of guaranteeing Ukraine’s post-war future In case of ceasefire.
Britain and France Are Leading the push for a so-called reassurance force In ukraine Retraining the army and maintaining a peace agreement if it emerges.
Downing Street said Britain is planning for a multinational force drawn from partners on the continent, despite the Kremlin this week describing any overseas deployment as “unacceptable”.
Thousands of allied troops could be sent to cities across Ukraine to help the army regain its strength and stand as an independent deterrent to Russian aggression – if the two sides can agree terms.
Plans have been in the making for months, stemming from discussions between Kiev and interested coalitions about what security guarantees are needed to end the war.
When Washington unveiled a draft peace resolution last week that rejected the deployment of international peacekeepers, a European presence on the ground was initially dismissed.
But it appears that the US has warmed somewhat to Europe’s model in terms of security its contribution Helped to promote decisive progress in the talks.
What might a reassurance force look like?
Over the past nine months, the coalition of the willing has committed to defending Ukraine by helping to reinforce its military, defending its airspace and deploying small numbers of troops.
During a virtual meeting with coalition members last week, the French President Emmanuel Macron It said a task force has been formed to convert the ideas into concrete military commitments.
The focus will be on restoring Ukraine’s military to full strength, which will serve as an independent deterrent against future aggression. Former British Army Colonel Philip Ingram told Independent European training forces already working with Ukrainian soldiers in their home countries will likely be redeployed to help troops closer to home.
“This could be done over a series of bilateral negotiations between Ukraine and the contributing countries, and so it could refuse to be labeled as NATO, allowing Russia They were told to mind their own business,” he said.
Ingram assessed that it would likely be a “presence force” rather than a large military buffer capable of confronting Russian forces.
It is still unclear how large this group could be; At the beginning of the year, analysts had given estimates ranging from 20,000 to 100,000. But by August, the military chief was already reportedly reduce their thoughts For something more “realistic”.
Macron said last Tuesday that the coalition was also working on air support in nearby countries. It’s less likely to draw criticism from Washington: Trump has already given his blessing to deploying European fighter jets to neighboring Poland.
Who will attend?
The taskforce announced by Macron will be led by France and the UK, with participation from Türkiye and the United States. Macron said about 20 unspecified countries have committed to some active participation, whether by air, land or sea.
Downing Street confirmed that Britain is still committed to deploying troops to Ukraine. Just before the US revealed its initial draft for peace, Defense Secretary John Healey said that more than £100 million was being prepared to cover the cost of sending troops to Ukraine in the event of a ceasefire, and military units had already been chosen.
France is also preparing itself for a leading role, although Macron has been careful not to provoke his domestic audience. He said on French radio that France would not rush to send troops and would deploy the force “in a rear position in Kiev or Odessa”.
He said, “We must not spread panic among the French, because there are a lot of people… who want to scare us, and who are saying that we are going to send troops immediately. This is a lie.”
Türkiye has been the most hesitant to commit to specifics. The Defense Ministry recently confirmed that the military is ready to “contribute to any initiative aimed at ensuring security and stability in our region”, but said a ceasefire is needed before any concrete commitments can be made. Macron indicated that Türkiye could play a naval role given its position on the Black Sea.
Washington has deliberately stayed away from these discussions, but has appeared more involved in recent weeks.
After hailing unprecedented progress in talks with Ukraine in Geneva, with the support of Europe, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio joined the virtual coalition meeting in an encouraging show of support.
It is still unlikely that the US will back up Europe’s promise with a physical presence. Trump has repeatedly refused to wear boots on the ground.
What do the experts say?
A small but effective army in Ukraine could still play a key role in helping rebuild the country after four years of bitter war, experts say.
Leo Litra, visiting fellow in the European Security Program at the European Council on Foreign Relations, argued that a smaller army would not “undermine the rationale of the mission”.
He said, “The U.S. mission in Vietnam began with 900 American trainers; the International Security Assistance Force mission in Afghanistan began with 5,000 troops.” However, the US would still need to provide key guarantees – air defense, intelligence, surveillance – to prevent an actual attack.
Sophia Besch, senior fellow in the Europe Program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, agreed that Europe is risking military action that they cannot afford – and that they should focus on support.
“Europeans cannot talk about the existence of a credible American backstop,” he said. Meanwhile, he argued that Europe could help Ukraine regain its footing through training and rearming forces.