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heyn Saturday, President donald trumpAmbassador John Cole said that the Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko promised to stop flying weather balloons in his country lithuania,
This came just days after the Lithuanian government was forced to declare a state of national emergency in response to an increase in balloons flying across the border. belarusMany of them smuggle cigarettes.
In the past year, experts say about 600 balloons and 200 drones linked to smuggling have entered Lithuanian airspace, causing a temporary border closure and chaos at Vilnius Airport.
The balloons are believed to have transported thousands of contraband cigarettes across the border. Last weekend, authorities said they seized about 40,000 packets of cigarettes from just 11 balloons.
Typically, balloons cross the border at night to avoid detection. Once they land, illegal couriers use SIM/GPS-enabled tracking devices to locate them.
Lukashenko, close associate of Russiahave denied state involvement in smuggling, arguing that it is carried out by criminals taking advantage of low prices in their country.
But Pavel Slankin, visiting fellow at the European Council on Foreign Relations, says such trafficking is “built into the government.” They suggest the balloons may be a ploy to pressure Lithuania to engage in talks with Lukashenko’s dictatorial regime.
Relations between Lithuania and Belarus have long been tense, but tensions escalated in October, when Lithuania closed two border crossings between the countries for three weeks. In response, Belarus banned Lithuanian lorries from its roads, bringing trade to a halt. Hundreds of vehicles are still stuck in the country.
Why did Lithuania declare emergency?
Border tracking data from Lithuania shows the number of balloons ballooning into the country in 2025 compared to the previous year. The most recent wave has been unusually disruptive for aviation, with a cluster of missions centered around Vilnius Airport from October to December.
This has prompted the Lithuanian government to declare a “nationwide state of emergency”, allowing government institutions to coordinate more closely and receive the support of military units.
Dr. Rasmus Nilsson, lecturer in Russian foreign policy and post-Soviet politics at University College London, suggests that the decision to declare a state of emergency was linked to a lack of confidence in NATO.
he told Independent: “Given recent policies and statements by the United States, there is a fear in this part of Europe that local NATO members will be left exposed to attacks (hybrid or overtly military) from Russia and Belarus.
“Although Vilnius does not see such a scenario unfolding in the immediate future, it sees every reason to highlight potential threats from the east to remind other NATO members in the alliance’s eastern flank of its potentially precarious position.”
Why have balloons destabilized Lithuania?
The balloons have caused considerable disruption to flights, with more than 350 flights delayed, diverted or canceled since October alone. The resulting financial loss now exceeds €750,000.
Mr Slankin suggests the balloons are part of a more comprehensive strategy. “There is a concept in Russian [and therefore Belarussian] National strategy,” he said. “They call it ‘escalating’ – when you raise the stakes so much for the other side that they won’t be willing to go that far.
They suggest that Belarus seeks to escalate tensions with Lithuania while cozying up to the United States – thereby weakening a key alliance. US President Donald Trump has expressed admiration for Lukashenko in the past and called him a “highly respected president”. His new envoy, Mr Cole, visited Minsk on Friday to negotiate the release of 1,400 political prisoners.
How this is part of Putin’s ‘hybrid war’
The Lithuanian government has said the emergency comes in response to a series of “hybrid attacks” by Belarus, a reference to the “hybrid war” that Russia has waged against Western countries since its invasion of Ukraine.
The term describes a military strategy that combines conventional warfare techniques with cyber attacks, disinformation campaigns, and drone infiltration. Moscow consistently seeks to distance itself from responsibility for such attacks, but the increasing frequency of cases involving Russia has led most Western governments to conclude that these are part of Putin’s strategy.
In the UK, several cyberattacks, including one targeting the NHS, have been linked to Russia, while drones have been spotted at major airports across Europe. Russia has denied all ties.
Mr Slankin says Lithuania has two options: “You negotiate [with Belarus] Or you hope that the EU and others will deal with the situation.” So far, Lithuania has chosen the latter.