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a major real estate The organization predicts real estate market After stagnation in 2025, there will be a sharp rebound next year.
National Association of Realtors Published a forecast Forecast to 2026 house sales will increase by 14%.
“After three years of underperformance, I expect home sales to rise significantly, and our forecast is for 14% sales growth, which means more Americans will move,” said Lawrence Yun, the association’s chief economist. newsweek.
He said the forecast was driven by an increase in housing inventory (available homes) as well as a “small decline.” mortgage interest rate“The association expects mortgage interest rate That will drop to 6% next year, which will open the market to an estimated additional 5.5 million qualified homebuyers, including Approximately 1.6 million tenants. Current mortgage rates for a 30-year fixed loan range from 6.2% and 6.3%.
Market conditions are exactly what the real estate industry and potential homebuyers and sellers have been waiting for after three years of stagnation, NAR wrote.
Other forecasts for the housing market in 2026 are more neutral. Zillo’s latest works forecast House prices are expected to grow only moderately next year, rising just 1.2%.
Redfin posted a similar Reportthe year-on-year growth is expected to be only 1%.
Both forecasts suggest the market is slowing, but not reversing.
Whatever the case, one of the most important factors for potential home buyers is location.
According to the Resi Club real estate analysis report, states with the most active housing inventory growth last year included Maryland (up 34%), Virginia (up 27%) and North Carolina (up 34%), as well as Nevada (up 27%) and Arizona (up 23%). fast company. Inventories increased by 25% in Washington state and 23% in South Dakota.
Based on regional housing supply, the current market appears to be moving in the opposite direction. Markets where there are more active homes on the market than there are homes on the market have noticed price softening and even price declines in 2019, fast company Report.
Most states with more housing inventory today than they did in 2019, before the pandemic caused some people living in densely populated cities to move to less populous parts of the country, are in the West.
Texas, Arizona, Colorado, Utah, Idaho, Washington, Tennessee, Florida and Washington, D.C., have more homes on the market now than in 2019. Prices are cooling in these places due to the higher number of homes available.
But in the Northeast and Midwest, a different story is playing out. There are fewer homes on the market in these states compared to 2019, but prices remain high and in some cases have even appreciated.
