Fragile thaw: Pakistan’s August strikes on TTP hint at shifting Taliban calculus

New Delhi, Aug 28 (IANS) Ties between Afghanistan and Pakistan since the Taliban took over have soured considerably in recent years. There have been multiple reasons for the same which also include the Durand Line.

While the border is an ongoing issue, the flare up has largely been over the support given to the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) and Balochistan Liberation Army (BLA) as alleged by Islamabad.

During a trilateral, both China and Pakistan had urged the Taliban to stop supporting the TTP and BLA. However the Taliban was reluctant and only assured that it would allow the BLA to carry out activities on its soil. No such assurance was given where the TTP was concerned.

The Pakistan Army which has suffered several set backs due to attacks by the TTP has accused the Taliban of allowing the outfit to use Afghanistan as a launchpad. While diplomatic efforts and complaints at the United Nations by Pakistan have failed to solve the problem, there has been a change in the number of casualties that the TTP has suffered in August 2025.

On Tuesday, the Pakistan Army launched drone attacks that targeted hideouts of the TTP in Afghanistan. The strikes were launched in coordination with the Taliban authorities.

Heavy casualties were inflicted upon the TTP and several hideouts were destroyed in the attack. The attacks were planned in advance and the Taliban authorities were aware of it.

For the TTP, August 2025 has been a bad month. On August 8, thirty-three TTP fighters were killed by the Pakistan Army.

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A mosque in Bajaur which was being used as a TTP hideout was hit by the Pakistan security forces. Thirty TTP men were killed in this strike. If one takes into account the strike on Tuesday, this would be the fourth strike on the TTP by the Pakistan Army in August alone.

What is interesting is that all these were precision hits which suggests that the Pakistan Army had specific Intelligence. This could have been provided by the Afghan Taliban to the ISI.

If this assessment is indeed correct then what could have changed between the Taliban and Pakistan.

SASSI, an Islamabad based think-tank had announced a conference titled, ‘The Future of Afghanistan: Peace, Stability and Development’.

Habiburrahman Hekmatyar, Nasir Anisha, Mustafa Mastoor and Fawzia Koofi were among those invited for the event. All these persons have been critical of the Taliban.

The Taliban was irked by this event that was to be held on August 25-26. In fact there was a suspicion that it was the ISI which had coordinated this event.

Even during the trilateral that was held last week, the Taliban’s acting foreign minister, Amir Khan Muttaqi had urged Pakistan’s foreign minister, Ishaq Dar to prevent these anti-Taliban figures from holding such an event in Islamabad.

Immediately after this meeting, some Pakistan media outlets said that the event had been postponed due to pressure from the Taliban.

The Afghanistan media outlets, however, attributed the postponement due to visa delays. They, however, did say that there was pressure from the Taliban on Pakistan not to allow the event to take place.

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This brings up the question whether the Taliban and Pakistan had a secret understanding as a result of which strikes on the TTP have rise.

While such an understanding suits Pakistan, the risks of a rift between the TTP and Taliban are immense. The two sides could clash and many within the Taliban may move towards the TTP making matters extremely complicated. Such issues could be dangerous for the region and risks of instability would be high.

While these new developments may suggest a thaw in tensions between the Taliban and Pakistan, the situation is still fragile. It could also be a temporary agreement which would allow the Pakistan Army save its face by targeting the TTP. The army’s image in Pakistan has taken a beating after it has been humiliated repeatedly by the TTP and BLA.

–IANS

vicky/pgh

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