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A ceasefire in Ukraine is unlikely before spring european Need to maintain support for allies despite corruption scandal emerging KyivFinnish President Alexander Stubb told The Associated Press.
In the meantime, Europe will need ”sisu” – a Finnish word meaning stamina, resilience and patience – to get through the winter months, as he said, Russia It has continued its hybrid attacks and information warfare across the continent.
Stubbs also needs that quality as one of the key European negotiators between US presidents donald trump and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky. As the leader of a country that is one of Europe’s smallest but shares a 1,340-kilometre (830-mile) border with Russia, he is well aware of what is at stake.
In the 1940s, after two wars with Russia, Finland lost about 10% of its territory to Moscow and agreed to be militarily neutral, changing stance only after Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, when the Finns joined NATO. Stubb took advantage of his good relationship with Trump to debate the Ukraine issue – the two men have played golf together and talk regularly.
He said, “I can explain to President Trump what Finland has gone through or how I see the battlefield situation, or how you deal with (Russian President Vladimir) Putin? And then, you know, if he accepts one of the 10 ideas, that’s good.”
Stubb spoke to the AP on Saturday at a military base north of the capital Helsinki, where he watched Finnish volunteers take part in defense training. Wearing a jacket emblazoned with the word “Sisu” on the back, he watched as volunteers practiced evacuating wounded soldiers from the conflict zone in freezing temperatures.
Stubb told the AP that Zelensky should quickly deal with bribery and embezzlement charges, saying the scandal plays into Russia’s hands. Nonetheless, he urged European leaders to consider increasing financial and military aid for Kiev, which also faces Russia’s growing advantages on the battlefield.
“I’m not very optimistic about achieving a ceasefire or beginning peace talks, at least not this year,” Stubb said. He said it would be nice to “get something done” by March.
He said the three big questions on the path to a ceasefire are security guarantees for Ukraine, rebuilding its economy and reaching some kind of understanding about territorial claims.
To bring peace to Ukraine, Stubb said, Trump and European leaders need to put maximum pressure on Russia and Putin to change their strategic thinking. Putin “fundamentally wants to deny Ukraine’s independence, sovereignty and territorial integrity,” Stubb said, adding that his objective has not changed since the war began nearly four years ago.
To do this, he suggested using tools such as hundreds of billions of dollars of frozen Russian assets held in Europe as collateral to finance Ukraine, as well as increasing military pressure on Moscow.
Stubb praised Trump for sanctioning major Russian energy companies Lukoil and Rosneft in October, saying he did an “excellent job”, but argued that more should be done to give Ukraine the ability to influence Russia’s “military or defense industry”.
Last month Trump rejected a Ukrainian request for long-range Tomahawk missiles that would theoretically allow Ukraine to strike deeper into Russia — although Kiev currently has no launchers or platforms from which to fire them.
Stubb indicated that Ukraine is still in talks with the US for more firepower.
Trump’s bet on Ukraine!
In mid-October the White House announced that Trump would meet with Putin in Budapest and abruptly canceled the meeting less than a week later.
The decision came after a call between Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov, where Rubio probably realized that “the Russians haven’t moved an inch,” Stubb said, and “there’s no point in getting President Trump into a situation where he doesn’t get a deal or anything.”
Stubb said the cancellation was “yet another example of a strategic mistake by the Russians. They had an opportunity and they wasted it.”
Trump has gone back and forth between trying to reach out to Putin and putting pressure on him, and he has done the same with Zelensky. Stubb said he deals with any changes by being “pretty patient” and staying “realistic”.
“You can’t have illusions about the things you want to see happen,” the Finnish president said. “I personally have tried to focus on things like: We need security guarantees for Ukraine. How to make them? We need a ceasefire. How do we get that?
“It’s been a little tough. I think you need ‘sisu’ in these kinds of negotiations, too.”
But, he said, the work is paying off and the military options for guaranteeing Ukraine’s security once a ceasefire or peace talks are reached are now “clear”, with various countries having committed resources – though he declined to give further details, citing confidential military planning.
Despite some of Ukraine’s mistakes, Stubb is not hesitant in praising Zelensky. He said, “I admire a lot of the things they’re doing because leading a country in war … is existential. You learn a lot from other human beings in that situation.”
Stubb has Trump’s ear
When it comes to dealing with Donald Trump, Stubbs is in a better position than many European leaders. In their youth, they studied in the United States on golf scholarships and in March the two spent about seven hours playing a round at Mar-a-Lago.
He suggested that golf was a “door opener” and helped him build a relationship with the US President. While Trump and Zelensky have an extremely strained relationship, Stubb said he and other European leaders can help serve as a bridge between them.
“We interpret President Trump as President Zelensky and vice versa,” he said.
But when it comes to Putin, there is only one person who should interact with him directly and publicly and that is Trump, with Stubb indicating that the EU is unlikely to open a direct channel of communication with the Russian leader any time soon.
Russian attacks in Europe
At the same time that Trump is leading talks with Putin, several European countries have faced reports of Russian drones – suspected or confirmed – as well as warplanes and an alleged widespread Russian sabotage campaign.
Stubb told the AP that Russia is waging not only kinetic warfare in Ukraine but also hybrid warfare in Europe.
“The line between war and peace has become blurred,” Stubb said.
Russia is trying to destabilize Europe and “create havoc and panic” with attacks including arson, vandalism and propaganda, he said.
The way to deal with those threats, Stubb said, is to “be Finnish.”
“In other words, stay calm, stay composed and enjoy that ‘sisu’ a little bit.”