Biden vs. Trump: The lineup for the 2024 U.S. election is already a foregone conclusion, and a rematch between the two presidents seems a foregone conclusion.
But what happens if, for any number of reasons, one of the two contenders ends up not getting on the November ballot? According to the rules and experts, in addition to huge political chaos, the following will happen:
Why isn’t it on the ballot?
What would cause Democratic President Joe Biden, 81, or Republican former President Donald Trump, 77, not to vote?
One year old. Either candidate would take office in January 2025, making him the oldest president in the history of the United States.
Although neither man reported any serious health issues, statistics suggest both men are at a higher risk of death or serious medical malpractice as they age.
What should I do if I voluntarily withdraw? “This is an absolutely ridiculous fantasy,” said Democratic political strategist Rachel Bitecofer.
Even if Republicans wanted to change their rules and switch candidates — if, for example, the polls took a catastrophic turn after Trump was legally convicted — “they still wouldn’t because that would cause their base to completely collapse. “
Biden has frequently claimed that he is the most qualified candidate, even though polls show his age offends voters.
“What are you supposed to say – ‘Oh, he’s fine, he’s going to do a triathlon tomorrow’? I mean, he’s 81 years old,” said Democratic Congressman Adam Smith. Still, “no one decided to compete with him, so here we are.”
Trump, meanwhile, insists he will run despite the possibility of being convicted before the election and theoretically facing decades in prison.
if candidate leaves
To designate a party’s official nominee, representatives from each state attend their respective party’s summer nominating convention, where candidates are formally designated based on primaries.
If either Biden or Trump drop out of the race before the primaries are over, the final decision will rest with convention delegates.
Elaine Carmack of the Brookings Institution said in a recent report that these representatives are “8,567 people you’ve never heard of,” ordinary Americans who happen to be politically active.
This has not happened since President Lyndon B. Johnson’s shocking announcement on March 31, 1968 (during the Vietnam War) that he would not seek re-election.
Since then, the national convention has been running smoothly, and its results are known in advance because they are determined by primaries.
But this year, candidates leaving could result in “a convention whose outcome may not be known in advance … like the nominating conventions that were held between 1831 and 1968, without any restrictions,” Carmack said.
What if something happens after one of the candidates is formally nominated at the convention?
One of the party’s formal governing bodies, the Democratic National Committee or the Republican National Committee, will nominate a new candidate at the special meeting.
On the Republican side, the Republican National Committee is undergoing a reshuffle, and Trump has suggested that his daughter-in-law, Lala, take the leadership role, which would give his camp huge influence in choosing his successor.
Who can fill it out?
A strong but not automatic candidate to take Biden’s place would be his Vice President Kamala Harris, who is already part of his campaign.
Otherwise, any of the powerful Democratic politicians — California Governor Gavin Newsom, Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer and Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro Shapiro)—are likely to be called upon.
But Trump has yet to announce a vice presidential pick.
As Georgetown University government professor Hans Noel noted, Trump spent the primary campaign disparaging other heavyweights in his party.
Chief among them is Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, who was relentlessly attacked by Trump before ending his candidacy.
Also on the list is Nikki Haley, the only serious candidate other than Trump to remain in the Republican primary but who has been criticized by Trump’s loyal followers hatred.
“Nikki Haley may have been capable of being a replacement before, but by continuing to fight the party favorite, she lost support from “anyone who liked Trump,” Noel said.
In the meantime, could a strong third-party candidate emerge? So far, no independent candidate has posed any threat to America’s dominant two-party system.
In 1992, Texas billionaire Ross Perot ran as an independent and won nearly 19% of the popular vote.
But in the end, due to the vagaries of the U.S. electoral system, he did not receive the most important vote: the vote among the 538 members of the Electoral College that ultimately determines the winner.
(This story has not been edited by NDTV staff and is auto-generated from a syndicated feed.)
