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Edge England are widely expected to keep interest rates unchanged next week, but economists are preparing for an immediate decision as new economic data opens the door to a possible cut.
The Bank’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) will take its next decision on interest rates on Thursday.
Most economists expect rates to be kept at 4% as the bank continues to signal further signs that inflation is slowing and awaits further autumn measures to be announced in November. Budget,
However, some experts, including banking giants barclays And Goldman SachsWith policymakers influenced by recent economic data, many are predicting a cut of 3.75%.
Official data last week showed that UK consumer price index (CPI) inflation stood at 3.8% in September, the same level as both July and August, with food prices falling during the month.
Most economists had predicted a reading of 4% for the month.
Edward Allenby, senior UK economist at Oxford Economics, said: “On balance, the data published since the September meeting should help to slightly ease some of the MPC’s concerns about inflation continuing to remain above target.
“But this is unlikely to be enough to convince a majority for a rate cut in November.”
Mr Allenby stressed that policymakers would want to see “more sustained evidence that underlying inflation pressures are easing before they cut again”.
Matt Swannell, chief economic adviser at the EY Item Club, said there were “encouraging signs” of a slowdown in food inflation and a decline in energy costs, but MPC members “remain concerned about underlying sticky inflation”.
,inflation This is almost double the 2% target, and may fall short of the pace of labor market easing needed to get inflation back on target,” he said.
“Meanwhile, the recent decline in food price inflation may reflect a one-time relaxation rather than the beginning of a decline.”
Additionally, economists pointed out that the Bank may want to wait to see what measures are announced in Chancellor Rachel Reeves’ budget on November 26 before cutting interest rates.
Investec economist Ellie Henderson said: “It is looking more likely that Chancellor Reeves will have to raise taxes and/or cut spending to meet his fiscal rules and restore a degree of fiscal headroom.
“Such tightening of fiscal policy would act as a drag on demand within the economy, and would increase deflationary pressures, making a rate cut more likely by the end of the year.”
He added that the bank wants to see “evidence of inflation moderating, not just peaking” before cutting interest rates further.
On the other hand, Jack Meanings, chief UK economist at Barclays, predicted that recent inflation data would be enough to prompt policymakers to cut rates on Thursday.
With data pointing to slowing wage growth among UK workers, he said this would give the committee more confidence that inflation is about to ease.
It comes as economists at US investment bank Goldman Sachs also predicted that the recent data would be enough to convince the bank to cut rates to 3.75%.
It marks a change in sentiment after many experts ruled out a rate cut in November and said borrowing costs might not fall until 2026, a blow to millions of mortgage holders still hoping to refinance at higher rates.