Nairobi, Kenya——

Less than a week after West Africa’s three militarily dominant nations, Burkina Faso, Mali and Niger, said they were forming a joint counterterrorism force, experts have raised concerns about the arrangement.

The security situation in the Sahel has worsened since militaries overthrew their respective civilian-led governments due to insecurity and threats from jihadist groups. But some experts say the latest moves could do more harm than good as the countries struggle with poor governance and suspended international support.

After hosting the foreign ministers of Burkina Faso and Mali in Niamey last week, the Commander-in-Chief of the Nigerian Armed Forces, Moussa Salawu Barmu, said the three West African countries would better serve the country through formal joint counter-terrorism efforts. Create conditions for regional security.

All three countries have millions of people displaced by terrorist threats and attacks.

Oluwole Ojewale, regional coordinator of the Senegalese Institute for Security Studies, called the tripartite agreement to combat terrorism on the shared border a significant development.

“Criminals, terrorist groups, jihadists and bandits operating in these three regions, especially in the border areas, they have havens in these countries,” Ojewale said. “They are recruiting people from these countries, and launched attacks in those three countries. I think they want to cooperate in providing a military solution to the crisis, which is a welcome development.”

Military leaders in Bamako, Niamey and Ouagadougou say they overthrew civilian-led governments because they failed to address insecurity, particularly from terrorist groups.

However, since taking power, conflict deaths from political violence have increased by 38% in the three countries, and civilian deaths have increased by more than 18%, according to the Armed Conflict Location and Event Data Project.

All three military leaders are at odds with other leaders of the Economic Community of West African States, a regional economic bloc, over how to return an elected civilian government to power.

Western economic and security support for the three countries has been suspended since the military junta came to power.

David Otto, director of security and defense analysis at the African Center for Security and Strategic Studies in Geneva, said good governance and popular support are needed to defeat the terrorist threat.

“The success of any operation or any security or defense agreement is often tied to economic stability,” he said. “[And] It’s also about people’s support. If the people of these countries are deprived of daily bread and the governance structures become weak, then this may also have a direct impact on the success of these operations. “

Ojewale said a lack of international support could hamper their shared security goals. Since the main support comes from Russia, there may be a question of how much support is available for the war in Ukraine, he said.

But, he added, if the coalition can gather intelligence and be proactive about counterinsurgency operations and potential attacks, “maybe they can make some progress, but that remains to be seen.”

Experts say that given the current insecurity in these countries, their militarized counterterrorism tactics are likely to continue to escalate and increase violence within communities.