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Ethiopia The Prime Minister likes big projects. With the completion of a mega-dam on the Nile River, Abiy Ahmed is now planning AfricaIndia’s largest airport and a nuclear power plant. But the threat of war is back as the landlocked country seeks its boldest feat yet: access to the sea.
The Prime Minister praised the country’s transformation in a parliamentary address in late October. Capital, addis ababaA rapid pace of development has been observed. The Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam was inaugurated in July. Abiy called it a “harbinger of tomorrow’s dawn” that would end dependence on foreign aid for Africa’s second-most populous country. The country has been one of the world’s largest recipients of aid.
But there are many challenges ahead that could badly damage the economy, which has seen the strongest growth on the continent.
eritrea
Abiy’s government remains committed to regaining access red seawhich ethiopia lost when eritrea Separated in 1993 after decades of guerrilla warfare.
The countries made peace in recent years, winning Abiy the Nobel Peace Prize, then united in a devastating war against Ethiopia’s Tigray region. Now the tension has returned.
In June, Eritrea accused Ethiopia of a “long-running war agenda” aimed at seizing its Red Sea ports. Ethiopia insists it wants to gain maritime access peacefully.
Ethiopia recently claimed that Eritrea is “actively preparing to wage war against it.” It has also accused Eritrea of supporting Ethiopian rebel groups.
Magnus Taylor, deputy director for the Horn of Africa at the International Crisis Group, called the tensions worrying.
“There is the potential for mistakes or miscalculations,” he said, “and the situation could get worse in the coming months.”
egypt
Egypt depends on the Nile River for almost all of its drinking water and fiercely opposed the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam, saying it would threaten supplies. Egypt and Ethiopia have held several rounds of inconclusive negotiations to regulate use of the dam, especially in times of drought.
Since the dam’s inauguration, Cairo has tightened its rhetoric against Ethiopia. In September, it said it “reserves the right to take all necessary measures to protect the existential interests of its people.”
Ethiopia says the dam is vital to its development as it aims to lift millions of people out of poverty.
Egypt has also tried to take advantage of tensions between Ethiopia and its neighbors. It has strengthened security ties with Eritrea and signed a security accord with Somalia, which sparked a furious reaction last year when Ethiopia signed a ports deal with the breakaway region of Somaliland, over which Somalia claims sovereignty.
ethnic conflict
The war in Ethiopia’s Tigray region ended with a peace deal in late 2022, but the country’s two largest regions – Amhara and Oromia – remain ravaged by ethnic-based insurgencies that threaten internal security.
A group of loosely organized militias called Fano in Amhara and the Oromo Liberation Army of Oromia both claim to represent people oppressed by the federal government.
Witnesses have reported massacres and other extrajudicial killings by all sides. Kidnappings for ransom have become common, and humanitarian aid groups struggle to deliver supplies.
Amnesty International has described the cycle of violence as a “revolving door of injustice”.
Meanwhile, the peace deal for Tigray risks collapse. Southern areas of Tigray have seen clashes between regional forces and local militias linked to the federal government. Tigray’s rulers accused the federal government of “blatantly violating” the agreement after the drone attack.
Abiy’s government has accused Tigray’s rulers of colluding with Eritrea.
economic inequality
This insecurity is a sharp contrast to the mood in Addis Ababa, where Abiy has spent billions of dollars on renovations, including building bike lanes, a conference center, parks and museums.
The prime minister wants to make the capital, already home to the African Union continental body and one of Africa’s busiest airports, a hub for international tourists and investors.
He issued an Ethiopian currency, opened the banking sector and launched a stock exchange – all dramatic steps for a country where the economy has long been state-owned and state-managed.
The reforms helped Ethiopia secure a $3.4 billion bailout from the International Monetary Fund last year. But investors are wary of Ethiopia’s internal insecurity and tensions with its neighbors.
Meanwhile, poverty has increased alarmingly. About 43% of Ethiopians live below the poverty line, up from 33% in 2016, according to the World Bank, two years before Abiy took power. This is due in part to rising prices of food and fuel, as well as defense spending taking up a greater share of Ethiopia’s budget.
The sense of prosperity prevailing in Addis Ababa is not shared by Ethiopia’s regions, said Taylor of the International Crisis Group.
“Abiy has a strong hold on the country in the centre, but then you have these periphery conflicts partly based on feelings of injustice – that they are poor and the center is rich,” he said. “So we expect this kind of volatility to continue in these areas.”
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