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According to space trackers, four satellites are falling to Earth every day from Elon Musk’s huge Starlink constellation.
Jonathan McDowell, an astronomer at the Harvard-Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics in the US, recorded An average of one to two Starlink satellites will exit orbit every day in 2025.
This figure is expected to increase to about five per day as SpaceX continues to grow its space internet constellation.
Videos of Starlink satellites falling to Earth have emerged on social media in recent weeks, raising concerns that they could pose a threat to people on the ground.
About 20,000 objects are currently being tracked in low-Earth orbit, including 12,000 operational satellites. , Of which 8,500 are Starlink satellites.
With a lifetime of about five years, Starlink satellites are intentionally designed to burn up completely in Earth’s atmosphere before reaching the ground. So while the phenomena may seem worrisome when they spread across the sky, they are not dangerous.
Dr. McDowell warned that the re-entry of other objects could pose a significant threat because they are not being controlled by their operators.
“Every few months there is a report of a piece of space hardware re-entering the air that ends up on the ground as a significant piece of debris,” he said. recent conversations With space news publication EarthSky.
“Several times a year we’ve been having these hits on people on Earth and luckily they’ve been missing. We’ve been very lucky so far, but this won’t last.”
Deorbiting Starlink satellites may not pose a threat to people, but Dr. McDowell said they could still prove problematic.
Scientists are still trying to understand what effect this rate of deorbit might have on Earth’s atmosphere.
Pollutants produced by burning, such as aluminum-oxide particles, can contribute to warming the atmosphere.
“It’s not really clear yet, even in the age of mega-constellations, [whether] These effects are going to be large enough to be really problematic, but it’s not clear that they won’t be,” Dr. McDowell said.
“That research is ongoing now, and if it turns out that we’re already harming the environment in this way, we’ll have to rethink some of our disposal strategies.”