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tuesday is the first important day election Day since of President Donald Trump Despite his absence from the campaign trail, he returned to the White House with his leadership and policies in almost every contest.
Most Major Battles Events are unfolding in Virginia and New Jersey, the only states holding gubernatorial elections this year. Although Donald Trump lost both states last fall, he has a history of electing Republicans to statewide office.
GOP candidates have aligned themselves closely with the president, betting that his big victory last year could still pave the way for his success, even though the party that captures the White House typically faces challenges in off-year elections.
Meanwhile, there was a strong demonstration democrat The party may find a way to return to national prominence. Their leading candidates have adopted a variety of strategies, ranging from liberal stances aimed at improving the lives of citizens to outright embrace of government spending.
In New York City, a self-described democratic socialist, already the target of Trump’s criticism, She could emerge as a national celebrity if elected mayorAdditionally, California voters are set to decide on redrawing the state’s House maps, as Democrats look to counter President Trump’s efforts to reshape the balance of power in Congress.
Here’s what to look for:
Referendum on Trump
The president did not step into Virginia or New Jersey to campaign with Republican gubernatorial candidates Winsome Earl-Sears Or jack ciattarelliBut both contests will likely be seen as referendums on Trump’s job so far.
Last year, his tariffs shook the global economy, his “big, beautiful” budget bill threatened rural hospitals and the health insurance coverage of millions of people, he made massive cuts to the federal workforce and he sent the National Guard to many American cities.
The president endorsed Ciattarelli in the race for New Jersey governor, but held only two tele-town halls on his behalf, including one on Monday night.
Trump also held an Election Night Eve tele-town hall for Virginia Republican candidates, but he did not mention Earl-Sears, who was mostly speaking in favor of the GOP nominee for attorney general. Earlier in the campaign, Trump had only half-heartedly endorsed Earl-Sears, saying he supported the GOP nominee for governor, though he did not use her name. Earl-Sears was nevertheless a fierce defender of Trump and his policies, as was Ciattarelli in New Jersey.
Despite Trump’s distance, a good night for Republicans will certainly be seen as a political victory for Trump and his “Make America Great Again” policies. A bad night for the GOP would give Democrats a strong — though perhaps fleeting — chance heading into the midterms that are still a year away.
A New Democratic Playbook?
The candidates’ performance Tuesday offers a test of two very different Democratic philosophies: toeing a moderate line or fully embracing far-left progressivism. But it also presents a scenario where both, or neither, may succeed – making it more difficult to draw conclusions going forward.
The party’s candidates for governor, New Jersey Representative Mickey Sherrill and former Virginia Representative Abigail Spanberger, have focused largely on the economy, public safety and health care, distancing themselves from some of the far-left policies of the Democratic Party.
A growing group of Democratic leaders believe a moderate approach is key to the party’s revival after the GOP swept the White House and both congressional houses last year. Tuesday could be a key indicator of whether they are right or not.
Both Sherrill and Spanberger have toned down their support for progressive priorities, including LGBTQ rights and resistance against Trump’s attacks on American institutions. Spanberger rarely mentioned Trump’s name on the campaign trail.
Both also have resumes that may appeal to the middling.
Sherrill spent a decade as an active-duty helicopter pilot for the Navy before entering Congress, while Spanberger is a former CIA case officer who spent several years working undercover abroad. He has presented his public safety background as a direct response to the GOP’s attack that Democrats are soft on crime.
Most of all, Democrats have focused on rising costs like groceries, energy and health care, which Trump has struggled to control.
A new star for Democrats (and Republicans) in New York City
This approach is a far cry from the New York City mayoral race, where progressives energize Zohran MamdaniThe 34-year-old Muslim state legislator, who identifies as a democratic socialist and supports radical changes to address economic inequality.
His bold agenda and inspirational vision have attracted thousands of volunteers to New York and brought people like Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders And New York Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez will campaign on his behalf.
It has also spooked some business leaders and voices in the Jewish community, who otherwise support Democrats but oppose some of Mamdani’s past statements about personal wealth accumulation and Israel.
Mamdani is locked in a tight race against former Governor Andrew Cuomo, who is running as an independent after losing the Democratic primary to Mamdani. Republican Curtis Sliwa is hoping for a major upset.
And while many progressives are thrilled, some Republicans in Washington are also quietly advocating for Mamdani’s victory. Republican campaign committees have already launched attack ads against more than a dozen vulnerable House Democrats in New York and New Jersey, linking them to Mamdani and his far-left politics.
Trump endorsed Cuomo, posting online Monday evening: “Whether you personally like Andrew Cuomo or not, you really don’t have a choice. You should vote for him, and hope he does a great job. He’s capable of it, Mamdani isn’t!” This is when Trump used to ridicule Mamdani almost every day.
GOP activists are also worried about the opportunity to use her to attack many more Democrats closer to next year’s midterm elections — just as they have done with progressive Democrats like Ocasio-Cortez and House “Squad” members like Minnesota Rep. Ilhan Omar.
shutdown effect
Election day comes in between federal government shutdown It’s already been more than a month. In Congress, both the parties blame each other and there seems to be no end to it.
Will it make any difference?
Virginia is home to more than 134,000 federal employees, many of whom have been furloughed or are being forced to work without pay. New Jersey has about 21,000 federal employees, out of a total of more than 2 million such government employees nationwide, according to the nonprofit Partnership for Public Service.
Any number is more than enough to influence a close election.
Additionally, millions of people may be deprived of vital food aid Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Programor SNAP, providing voters another urgent reason to express their displeasure.
Polling shows that Republicans, who control Congress and the White House, are getting slightly more blame than Democrats — though there is considerable frustration on both sides.
Trump has taken the extraordinary step of calling on the Senate to repeal filibuster rules requiring a minimum 60-vote on major legislation to try and force the government to reopen — even though his party’s leadership considers it a non-starter.
A test for Trump realignment
While Trump lost Virginia and New Jersey last time, there were significant shifts to the right in both states. In New Jersey, Trump’s 16-point loss in 2020 shrinks to less than 6 points in 2024.
Those shifts were fueled by Trump’s growing popularity among traditional Democratic loyalists: labor union members, black men, Hispanic voters and young people. Democrats are particularly vulnerable in New Jersey, which has the largest percentage of labor union families in the country.
If the pro-Trump trend continues this week, Democrats could be in trouble.
But of course Trump is not on the ballot. And the Trump coalition — especially low-propensity voters — generally hasn’t seen the same numbers in non-presidential years.
Democrats are cautiously optimistic because Trump did not campaign aggressively in any states, a move due both to the president’s weak position and his allies’ concerns about the viability of Republican candidates — particularly in Virginia.
At the same time, the biggest star of Democratic politics, former President Barack Obama, rallied voters in New Jersey and Virginia over the weekend.
Pennsylvania and California and the future of elections
Pennsylvania voters will decide whether three state Supreme Court justices backed by Democrats will serve another term.
The outcome could shape the seven-member high court in the nation’s most populous swing state, and impact key cases involving redistricting and voting for the midterm elections and the 2028 presidential race.
Incumbents are not listed by party affiliation. The ballot asks voters to cast only a yes-or-no vote. But spending on the race is likely to exceed $15 million, showing how important it is to Democrats and Republicans in Pennsylvania and beyond.
In California, Governor Gavin Newsom, often mentioned as a 2028 presidential candidate, is leading the charge to redraw congressional maps to give Democrats five more House seats in the upcoming elections.
The push is the centerpiece of a Democratic effort to counter new Republican maps in Texas and elsewhere that were designed to boost the GOP’s chances in next year’s fight to control Congress. However, for the new maps to count in 2026, voters must first approve a yes-or-no ballot question known as Proposition 50.