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since highly pathogenic avian influenza, or H5N1 – better known as bird flu – was first detected in America In 2022, it has wreaked havoc on the natural world, destroying fragile populations of wild birds and spreading to mammals, causing catastrophic numbers of die-offs of some species.
Meanwhile, the illness is also keenly felt poultry farmersWho see avian influenza as a terrible new threat to their livelihoods. Additionally, rising costs are ultimately passed on to consumers as egg prices have become volatile.
This year, there are cases Allegedly The surge has come earlier than experts had predicted, leading to major industry concerns over the scale of culling infected hens and how it will affect egg production and prices.
Experts have said that the impact of bird flu has led to a new seasonal change in egg prices in the US, which is related to the migratory patterns of wild birds, and this will lead to higher prices in the near future.
Patrick Penfield, professor of supply chain practice at Syracuse University, explained Independent That “due to bird flu, we are now seeing seasonal changes in egg prices”.
“We will see a similar pricing pattern from last year, where our prices will be higher in the late autumn and winter due to large outbreaks of bird flu. Egg prices may double during that time period, and then, as we get closer to summer when bird flu is on the rise, we will see egg prices decrease.”
He said: “My expectation is that overall egg prices will increase by 24 per cent in 2026.”
The slaughter of 23 million poultry birds peaked in January this year, with egg prices hitting an all-time high of $6 a dozen in March, just weeks later.
Data from USDA This month’s finding that egg prices are actually down $1.20 a dozen in October, which the agency said is “their lowest level in nearly two years amid a combination of increased supply and soft seasonal demand,” highlights fluidity in prices.
It is difficult to overstate the seriousness of the outbreak. Since the arrival of bird flu, which originated in intensively farmed poultry in China, by the summer of 2025, more than 175 million poultry birds in the US have been culled or have died as a result of the disease. Similarly, large-scale bird culling has also taken place across Europe.
Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service (APHIS), part of the U.S. Department of Agriculture, Said: “To provide context on the overall size of the U.S. poultry flock, there are more than 378.5 million egg-laying hens in the United States. In 2023, more than 9.4 billion broiler chickens and 218 million turkeys were processed in the United States.
APHIS also said, “Detections are higher in the fall and spring as we continue to see wild birds spread out [the] As viruses migrate to their seasonal homes.
But the problem is no longer limited to birds. On March 25 last year, an “unexpected” development took place in the US in which bird flu was found in dairy cattle.
This was the first time bird flu was found in cattle, and the earliest known spread of the virus in a herbivorous mammal. Since that initial case, more than 900 herds in 17 US states have been confirmed affected.
Symptoms are usually mild According to the UK RSPBWhich is monitoring the effects of bird flu. “Infected cattle usually show mild symptoms that may go unnoticed, leaving them vulnerable to spread from one farm to another through the movement of unidentified infected animals,” he said.
bird flu this year found in sheep For the first time in England.
New infections in other species have also occurred in recent years with devastating effects. On a beach in Argentina, experts told A “horrible scene”, in which an estimated 18,000 baby elephant seals died from the disease, and in the same place, infected birds were “falling dead from the sky”.
“The impact has already been massive,” said Dr. Amandine Gamble, an assistant professor in the department of public and ecosystem health at Cornell University.
he told Independent: “Some species are being pushed closer to extinction. We estimate that we have lost about 80% of the great skua – a bird found in the North.
“Among mammals, the impact on seals has been particularly dramatic, in Argentina but also in Subantarctica in South Georgia, perhaps because of their lifestyle: they gather in large dense colonies of thousands of individuals during the breeding season, in which the virus can spread very quickly.”
He added, “The impact of the virus on those populations will be felt for a very long time. Such mass deaths have ramifications for entire ecosystems.”
Humans have already been infected with the disease, with 67 cases reported in the US in 2024 – most of which were poultry workers. However, human-to-human transmission has not yet occurred, which is the necessary condition to trigger infectious disease in humans.
Dr. Jennifer B. Nuzzo, professor of epidemiology at Brown University, said Independent: “The biggest concern right now is that people and animals who get bird flu may experience serious illness. Although the humans and cows infected in the US have largely recovered, [the disease] In other countries the killing of animals and people continues at shockingly high levels.
“Why this is not happening in the US is not well understood. I have not seen anything that would make me less concerned about the ability of this virus to kill.
He said he was concerned that the virus “could mutate or recombine with another flu virus to develop new symptoms that could lead to a pandemic”.
“Right now, H5N1 is still largely a bird virus that occasionally infects people who are exposed to the virus. If H5N1 becomes able to infect people more easily and, importantly, spread more easily between people it will trigger a new pandemic.”