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Most recent torrential rains in East-Central MexicoIn which at least 72 people were killed and dozens went missing, it has again raised questions about the government’s ability to warn people in time about severe weather.
Officials are calling days of torrential rain last week that led to landslides and river flooding as unprecedented. Residents say they have never seen anything like this. But researchers say what was previously considered normal no longer exists as climate change has intensified these events and made them more frequent. And this requires preparation.
“We are being affected more and more by these events and we cannot continue like this, not knowing what to do and failing because there is not enough warning,” said Christian Domínguez, a researcher at the Atmosphere and Climate Change Institute at Mexico’s National Autonomous University. He recalled that last year’s crisis was drought related and this year, it is rain related.
This is a pending issue for Mexico and countries with more resources and advanced technology. United States of Americawhich experienced devastating floods texas At least 136 people died this year. Experts say societies and governments seem stuck in the past and have not accepted that severe weather is now the norm.
In the case of Mexico, it is the president from last year, claudia sheinbaumIs a trained scientist with a background in climate change. But when he expressed a desire to review prevention protocols this week, he did not mention climate change and stressed that it is impossible to accurately predict how much rain is going to fall in certain places.
Carlos Valdés, the former head of Mexico’s National Disaster Prevention Center, said that “the language used should be considered” in how to communicate threats in an incident. “The first thing we have to do is recognize that there has been a change… What was unusual is now the most typical.”
Technical gaps and prevention
There are technical flaws. For example, Domínguez acknowledged that Mexico does not have all the equipment to do things like measure river levels in real time to provide detailed hydrological forecasts or enough weather radar to allow meteorologists to make better forecasts.
But he stressed that even with current forecasts, there could be better prevention strategies if officials not only thought about storm preparation, but also considered the possibility that the confluence of different weather systems, as happened last week, has the potential to create a dangerous situation.
in the gulf coast state veracruzThe day before, torrential rain was expected to dump about 8 inches (20 centimeters) of rain along major rivers in the northern part of the state.
Dominguez said it exceeded that by three times, but the original forecast should have been enough for residents and officials to organize.
But in Poza Rica, the worst-hit city, residents began fleeing their homes when the waters were already flooding. Some people said authorities warned them too late. Most didn’t think it would be that bad.
Jonathan Porter, chief meteorologist at AccuWeather, said climate change is causing severe weather outside of the season when it would be expected and in places that wouldn’t normally be at risk of flooding.
“When ingredients come together, a severe weather event can develop anywhere,” he said.
training and education
Mexico has risk maps and civil protection officials are in charge of alerting people, Dominguez said, “but beyond alerting, people also have to understand what is being said.”
In late 2023, shortly after Hurricane Otis devastated Acapulco, which grew incredibly strong within a matter of hours, a woman in a devastated neighborhood said she had heard that a Category 5 hurricane was coming, but she didn’t know it would mean all the houses would be blown down.
Experts say not only civil defense officials need training, but people also need to be educated.
Over the decades, Mexico has developed new ways to warn of seismic activity in central and southern Mexico. With memories of Otis still fresh, Sheinbaum said his administration would focus more on storm and rain protection.
On Friday, thousands of soldiers and officials worked to reopen roads cut off by landslides and washed out bridges in Veracruz. But in neighboring Tamaulipas state to the north, officials monitoring the Panuco River had already issued a stark warning Thursday about the potential for flooding after the river rose nearly a foot (30 cm).
Sheinbaum said Friday that area mayors were informed in time and about 500 people had already moved into shelters.
“When officers’ actions are good, nothing happens,” Valdes said.