Dangerous times in foreign affairs can unite parties, but Sunak faces his own domestic struggles

MPs returned to Westminster today after a two-week absence to discuss the possibility of a dangerous escalation in the Middle East.

But the Prime Minister will also need to avoid domestic dangers this week if he is to deliver on some of the key policies on which his political survival depends.

One of them is legislation declaring Rwanda a safe country, which Downing Street expects to receive final royal assent this week.

It is expected to eventually put some failed asylum seekers on flights there, in what the government claims is a deterrent to small boat crossings.

Nearly two years since Boris Johnson made the announcement, many Conservatives still doubt it will happen – and the European Court of Human Rights could intervene again, having blocked it last time with a temporary injunction. Or it could happen on a scale that convinces voters of its potential to act as a deterrent and change things politically.

But passing the bill will be a critical moment for the prime minister and his allies, who remain hopeful that the Conservatives can start to turn things around despite the poll results.

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The next test is the second reading of the Prime Minister’s controversial smoking and vaping legislation – a vote on principle.

As a surprising centerpiece of last year’s party conference, it effectively banned smoking for anyone over the age of 14 – by raising the smoking age by a year each year.

Some Conservatives have publicly questioned its feasibility, even though it has the support of Labor and will pass; a massive rebellion by Tory MPs could put the Prime Minister’s authority at risk.

This is also a week of important economic news, with Wednesday’s CPI inflation data expected to fall further from 3.4% to 3.1%; it is gradually approaching the Bank of England’s 2% target.

The Conservative election hopes depend on the economic narrative. Ahead of the March Budget, Rishi Sunak told a conference that voters were starting to see “green shoots of recovery” and that the economy had reached an inflection point. This is what the Conservatives hope for.

However, despite announcing cuts to National Insurance for 27 million people, the Conservatives’ poor position in the opinion polls has barely changed. A steady stream of Tory MPs are throwing in the towel.

Sometimes dangerous moments in foreign affairs can bring a party together to rally behind its leader in difficult times. But a group of disaffected Conservatives see the local elections on May 2 as an opportunity to turn against Mr Sunak if he loses a large number of Tory MPs, as predicted.

With two weeks to go, it’s a crucial week to show he can make some progress on his own priorities such as the boat, the economy and smoking.

Developments in the Middle East could also go in the opposite direction. The Prime Minister is likely to make a statement today on the actions of British troops to thwart an Iranian attack.

But it could also create thorny issues for him, including greater calls for Britain to increase defense spending – now being united by an outspoken group of Conservatives and Labor.