Congress faces tough fight in Bihar: Alliance fighting on weak ground amid tension

In this election season, the Congress party is finding itself in a strange situation in the political scenario of Bihar. While the party has filed nominations for 61 seats under the Grand Alliance seat-sharing arrangement, its real test lies in the 52 constituencies where it faces not only opposition challenges but also dissent within the alliance.

Of the 61 seats allotted to the Congress, nine are seeing a “friendly contest” with candidates from the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) or Left parties contesting against Congress candidates. Political analysts told News18 Hindi that this inter-alliance contest could directly dent the party’s vote share in these constituencies.

History is against Congress on half the seats.

A closer look at the electoral history of these 52 key seats reveals a grim picture for the Congress. Since the 2008 delimitation, seven assembly elections have been held in Bihar. Of these, 23 seats were never won by any Grand Alliance component – ​​neither the Congress, nor the RJD, nor the Left parties. These areas have traditionally been strongholds of the NDA or independent candidates.

Furthermore, in 38 out of 52 seats, Grand Alliance parties have either never won or have won only once. This historical trend shows that Congress is facing a tough fight in most of the constituencies it is contesting this time.

A strategic, yet risky, rehabilitation effort

Political observers are seeing this election as a strategic rehabilitation exercise for the Congress in Bihar. Instead of focusing on its traditional strongholds, the party is contesting elections in areas where it has been almost wiped out in recent years.

It is said that two major factors are driving this approach. First, RJD’s dominant position within the Grand Alliance has forced the Congress to compromise on relatively weaker seats. Second, the Congress aims to rebuild its grassroots organization and regain political relevance before the next Lok Sabha elections.

However, the question is whether this long-term strategy will yield any short-term benefits?

Mathematics of 61 seats

The major obstacle of Congress remains its organizational weakness and lack of charismatic local leadership. Unlike the RJD, the party does not have a strong face at the state level who would be able to unite voters in the districts.

In the 2020 assembly elections, Congress contested 70 seats, but managed to win only 19. Reducing its tally to 61 this time is being seen as a strategic retreat, framed by party leaders as a “fewer seats, better focus” approach.

The Congress campaign focused on issues such as unemployment, inflation, education and social justice, but these themes failed to resonate strongly without dynamic local leadership. The prominence of RJD leader Tejashwi Yadav often overshadows the Congress’ voice, leaving the party dependent on the goodwill and vote transfer of its allies – a prospect that many analysts find uncertain.

Fight not just for seats, but for survival

Experts believe that Congress is now fighting for survival rather than ideological dominance in Bihar. Winning 15 to 20 seats out of the 52 contested seats will also be considered an important morale booster. On the other hand, poor performance could further weaken its bargaining power within the Grand Alliance.

Ultimately, this election is about more than just numbers for the Congress – it is about maintaining credibility and regaining relevance in a state where history has rarely been on its side.