China’s demand for road and air transport fuels may have passed its peak, the International Energy Agency (IEA) said Thursday, citing data showing that the country’s consumption of gasoline, gasoil and jet fuel declined marginally in 2024.
Combined consumption of the three fuels in China last year was at 8.1 million barrels per day (bpd), which was 200,000 bpd lower than in 2021 and only narrowly above 2019 levels, the IEA said in a monthly report.
“This strongly suggests that fuel use in the country has already reached a plateau and may even have passed its peak,” it said.
After decades of leading global oil demand growth, China’s contribution is sputtering as it faces economic challenges as well as making a shift to electric vehicles (EVs).
The decline in China’s fuel demand is likely to accelerate over the medium term, which would be enough to generate a plateau in total China oil demand this decade, according to the Paris-based IEA.
“This remarkable slowdown in consumption growth has been achieved by a combination of structural changes in China’s economy and the rapid deployment of alternative transportation technologies,” the IEA said.
A slump in China’s construction sector and weaker consumer spending reduced fuel demand in the country, it said, adding that uptake of EVs also weighed.
New EVs currently account for half of car sales and undercut around 250,000-300,000 bpd of oil demand growth in 2024, while use of compressed and liquified natural gas in road freight displaced around 150,000 bpd, it said.