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China’s exports rose in November after an unexpected contraction a month earlier, although shipments to the United States fell nearly 29% from a year earlier in the eighth consecutive month of double-digit declines.
total exports from China In dollar terms, imports in November were at $330.3 billion, up 5.9% from a year earlier, better than economists’ estimates, according to customs data released on Monday. This was an improvement from the 1.1% contraction in October.
While exports from China to the US have fallen for most of the year, shipments to other destinations including Southeast Asia, Africa And Latin America.
China’s imports rose 1.9% in November, better than October’s 1% rise, although a persistent decline in the property sector is still weighing on consumer spending and business investment.
A one-year trade truce was agreed between China and the US in a meeting between the US President donald trump and Chinese leaders Xi Jinping In South Korea in late October. The US has reduced its tariffs on China, and China has promised to stop its export controls related to rare earths.
“Although the trade armistice and US tariff cuts should be positive for Chinese exports, we are now entering a period of adverse base effects,” ING Bank economists Lin Song and Deepali Bhargava wrote in a report. Referring to strong growth in exports ahead of US President Donald Trump’s major tariff hikes after returning to the White House. “This should keep trade growth normal.”
Last month, China’s factory activity declined for the eighth consecutive month, according to an official survey, as economists said it was still too early to determine whether there has been a real rebound in external demand following the US-China trade truce.
With exports still strong, economists generally expect China to more or less meet its economic growth target of about 5% for this year.
Chinese leaders outlined a focus on advanced manufacturing for the next five years after a high-level meeting in October. Details of those plans are expected to be highlighted at an annual economic planning meeting this month.
A stable global trade environment is unlikely to last long, as China-US relations “remain in a stalemate” despite a temporary trade truce, said Chi Lo, global market strategist at BNP Paribas Asset Management.
Nevertheless, some economists believe China will continue to gain export market share in the coming years.
Morgan Stanley estimates that by 2030, China’s market share in global exports will reach 16.5%, up from about 15% currently, driven by its lead in advanced manufacturing and high-growth sectors such as electric vehicles, robotics and batteries.
“Despite persistent trade tensions, continued protectionism and proactive industrial policies adopted by G20 economies, we believe China will gain greater share of the global goods export market,” Chetan Ahya, chief Asia economist at Morgan Stanley, said in a recent note.