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China’s ambition to challenge boeing And airbus Turmoil is underway with its own domestic passenger jets, and deliveries of finished aircraft are likely to fall well short of the target announced for this year.
The C919 jet – a single-aisle passenger plane that aims to rival Boeing’s 737 and Airbus’s A320 – is built by state-owned aircraft maker COMAC. Beijing It is being displayed as evidence of China’s technological progress and progress in self-reliance, although it uses many Western-sourced components.
with trade friction Washington This threatens to prevent COMAC from securing key parts for a program that has been supported by heavy Chinese government subsidies.
Max J., Asia-Pacific senior economist at the Conference Board think tank. “COMAC faces significant risks from the volatile policy environment, with its supply chains vulnerable to export restrictions and tit-for-tat measures between the US and China,” Zenglin said.
According to Bank of America analysts, 48 major suppliers of C919 are from the US – including GE, Honeywell and Collins – 26 from Europe and 14 from China. Trump threatened China to impose new export controls on “critical” software after Beijing imposed tighter export controls on rare earths.
“Existing sticking points are being exploited in the deal-making process between governments,” Zenglin said. “This is likely to continue as key dependencies become instruments of political bargaining.”
Beijing has high hopes for the C919, which made its first commercial flight in 2023. The medium-sized jet is intended to help meet huge domestic demand for new aircraft over the next few decades. China hopes to expand sales beyond its borders and take off globally, including in Southeast Asia, Africa and Europe.
Despite plans to ramp up production and deliver 30 jets in 2025, COMAC delivered 13 C919s to Chinese carriers last year and only seven by October this year, according to aviation consultancy Cerium.
China’s largest state-owned airlines — air chinaChina Eastern and China Southern – the only commercial airlines currently flying a total of about 20 C919s.
Dan Taylor, head of consulting at aviation consultancy IBA, said trade tensions between the US and China have “directly impacted” the C919 delivery schedule. For one, output plans were disrupted when the US suspended export licenses for the jet’s LEAP-1C engines around May, and resumed them in July, he said.
The US-controlled technology that requires an export license for the LEAP-1C engines – jointly manufactured by America’s GE Aerospace and France’s Safran – means the C919’s engines require US export clearance, making it “inherently sensitive to political changes”, Taylor said.
Taylor explained, “Engine and avionics dependence on Western suppliers is exposing the program to policy decisions beyond COMAC’s control.”
Geopolitical tensions aren’t the only reason for slower than expected production of the C919. “The program is designed to err on the side of caution and prioritize quality and safety, so there may be some operational reasons for the slow production growth,” said Zenglin of the Conference Board.
Zenglin said that while “the goal has always been to reduce the dependence on foreign components as quickly as possible” for the C919, many analysts say this is a challenging process. According to the IBA, China’s own engine option – the CJ-1000A being developed by the state-owned Aero Engine Corporation of China (AECC) – is still under testing.
Several airlines outside China, including AirAsia, have expressed interest in flying the C919, but the lack of international certification has so far prevented the C919 from flying beyond China. Certification from US and EU aviation regulators could take years.
For the C919 to be successful, it “needs each of three things: good economics, an accelerated global product support network, and certification from safety agencies”, said Richard Aboulafia, managing director of Aerodynamic Advisory. “None of these three alone make any sense,” he said.
According to Airbus’s latest market forecast, China will need 9,570 new passenger aircraft between 2025 and 2044, more than 80% of them single-aisle jets such as the C919.
COMAC faces a growing challenge from Airbus, which is expanding its manufacturing capacity in China. A second assembly line is scheduled to begin operations in 2026, allowing Airbus to increase production of the A320 single-aisle jet in China – an aircraft model similar to the C919.
Analysts expect it will take several years for COMAC to break the Boeing-Airbus monopoly in global aircraft share. IBA’s Taylor said that by the end of 2020, COMAC will likely grow within China and possibly establish regional exports.
Taylor said that in the near term, the lack of international certification would “delay any meaningful Western-market entry” for Jet and the instability of export controls would likely continue to undermine its global expansion plans.