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Imagine if a simple blood test could give a glimpse of your future health. Not only whether you have heart disease or cancer today, but also whether your overall risk of death in the next five or ten years is higher or lower than expected.
It’s the kind of idea that has been hovering around the medical field for decades, making headlines every time a new biomarker is discovered. However, in practice, predicting long-term health has been frustratingly vague. Doctors still rely heavily on age, weight, smoking history and a few routine blood tests, most of which provide only broad, population-level estimates.
At the same time, modern medicine is rapidly moving towards early detection and prevention. Health systems around the world are struggling with rising rates of chronic diseases and aging populations. Clinicians increasingly need tools that can identify exposures before symptoms appear, allowing earlier intervention. The question is whether signals of future health may already be circulating in our blood.
Our latest study finds just that. By measuring thousands of blood proteins in thousands of people and tracking those who survived or died over time, we found that certain protein patterns appear to be associated with a greater risk of dying from any cause other than accidents.
The analysis used data from more than 38,000 adults aged 39 to 70 who took part in the UK Biobank study. It is a long-running national health resource that collects biological samples and health information from half a million volunteers across the UK. Participants provided blood samples and ongoing comprehensive health and lifestyle data. We examined about 3,000 proteins in each blood sample and looked for proteins whose levels correlated with death within five or ten years.
After taking into account risk factors already known to adversely affect life expectancy, such as age, body mass index (BMI) and smoking, we identified hundreds of proteins associated with the overall likelihood of dying from any cause and the likelihood of dying from specific diseases, including cancer and heart disease.
Our research team then sorted those long lists to isolate a small number of proteins, known as protein panels. These panels included ten proteins that were associated with ten-year risk of all-cause mortality, and six proteins that were associated with five-year risk.
They improved predictive ability compared to traditional models that depended on age, BMI and lifestyle factors. In statistical terms, models based only on demographic and lifestyle data performed poorly, with accuracy close to random. Models that included protein panels performed better, although gains were still limited.
This suggests that certain proteins in the blood may give hidden signals about long-term health that go beyond the current illness. Traditional risk factors such as age, weight, smoking, alcohol consumption, and physical activity provide important but often unclear clues about declining health.
Blood proteins, in contrast, provide a real-time snapshot of what’s happening inside the body. Some may reflect slow, long-term changes such as low-level inflammation, tissue breakdown or subtle organ stress. Others may indicate more immediate risks involving the heart, blood vessels or immune system. Our study shows that the risk of dying may also be partly implicated in circulating protein levels.
Still, it is far from a perfect test. Predictive power is better than chance but still modest. These protein signatures cannot be considered as definitive indicators of someone dying. However, with more validation, they could act more like a warning that could prompt prompt action.
About the author
Nofar Ziffman is Professor of Health and Biomedical Informatics in the School of Health Sciences, Digital Health Specialist Group at the University of Surrey. This article is republished from Conversation Under Creative Commons license. read the original article,
For example, if a patient’s protein profile looks worrying, the GP may recommend more frequent testing or suggest earlier screening for cardiovascular problems. An elevated profile does not indicate imminent death. This indicates a higher risk than a person who has a different protein pattern, all else being equal.
Beyond diagnosis of existing disease
The study also focused only on associations. Protein may not cause the increased risk. They may simply be markers of underlying biological processes that have not yet produced symptoms. The authors further state that combining all causes of death into one outcome makes interpretation difficult. This is because the pathways leading to death vary widely. Heart disease, cancer, infection, and organ failure each involve very different biological mechanisms.
Even with these caveats, the findings point to a future where routine blood testing may go beyond diagnosing current disease. A simple snapshot can alert doctors that a patient is at increased risk of declining health, even if nothing appears obviously wrong. This can trigger early action such as close monitoring, lifestyle guidance or preventive treatment.
This type of risk stratification is becoming increasingly important as the population ages and rates of chronic disease increase, placing increasing pressure on health care systems. Such testing could help doctors target care more effectively.
Future research will determine how realistic this vision is. Large-scale validation studies in different populations will be needed to ensure that protein panels are accurate and reliable across different ages, ethnicities and health backgrounds. Only then can they be considered suitable for routine clinical use.
Additionally, any results will need to be interpreted in conjunction with a person’s medical history, lifestyle, and symptoms. Protein panels can provide an additional layer of insight, helping physicians build a complete picture rather than replacing traditional assessments.