Washington (AP)-Human-related climate change is responsible for killing around 1,500 people Last week’s European Heat Wave, A first type of rapid study was found.
Those 1,500 people “have died only due to climate change, so they are not for burning of our oil, coal and gas in the last century,” said Frederic Otto, co-writer to study a climate scientist at London’s Imperial College.
Scientists at Imperial and London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine used colleagues-reviewed techniques to calculate that about 2,300 people in 12 cities were probably likely to heat in high-temperature bouts last week, with about two-thirds of them dying of additional degrees.
The previous rapid atribution studies have not gone beyond evaluating the role of climate change in meteorological effects such as additional heat, floods or droughts. This study goes a step further to connect the use of coal, oil and natural gas directly for those who die.
“Heat Waves are silent killers and are very difficult to measure their health effects,” said a biostatistic, co-writer Gary Continodis at Imperial College. “People do not understand the actual mortality of summer waves and this is because (doctors, hospitals and governments) do not report as a underlying cause as heat”
Of the 1,500 deaths responsible for climate change, the study found that more than 1,100 people were 75 or older people.
Climate change heats the heat wave
“It is in summer, so it is sometimes hot,” the study’s lead author Ben Clarke said at a Tuesday’s news conference at Imperial College. “The effects of climate change have pushed it to several degrees and whatever they do brings more groups of people in dangerous fields and this is important. That is what we really want to expose here. For some people it is still hot weather but now a vast area of ​​population is more dangerous.”
Researchers saw in London from 23 June to 2 July; Paris; Frankfurt, Germany; Budapest, Hungary; Zagreb, Croatia; Athens, Greece; Barcelona, ​​Spain; Madrid; Lisbon, Portugal; Rome; Milan and Sasari, Italy. They found that excess heat from greenhouse gases, except for lisbon, added 2 to 4 ° C (3.6 to 7.2 ° F), which would have been in a more natural heat wave. London got the highest in about 4 degrees (7.2 degrees Fahrenheit). Otto stated that climate change added only one degree about the peak temperature of Lisbon, the study calculated, mostly due to the modeling effect of the Atlantic Ocean, Otto said.
That additional climate-conversion-causing heat added the most additional deaths in Milan, Barcelona and Paris and the lowest in-law, in Frankfurt and Lisbon, found in the study. The 1,500 figure is the middle of the range of overall climate-related death estimates that goes from about 1,250 to about 1,700.
How do scientists weigh climate change, calculate deaths
Wednesday’s study has not yet been reviewed by a colleague. It is an expansion of the work done by an international team of scientists, which conduct rapid atribution studies to discover the fingers of global warming in the increasing number of extreme weather events worldwide, and combine with long -established epidemics research that examines death trends that are considered normal.
Researchers compared what the thermometer read the thermometer last week would say that the use of fossil fuels would have led to a world without planetary fuel in a world without greenhouse gases. Health researchers then compared the estimates – there are no concrete figures yet – what has happened to the deaths from heat will be expected to death for each city without an additional heat of heat.
There are long -established formulas that calculate and used additional deaths from normal depending on the location, demographics, temperature and other factors, which are said, Otto and Consentinadis said. And health researchers take into account many variables such as smoking and chronic diseases, so it is comparing the same people except temperature, so they know what is the defect, Constentinadis said.
The study in 2021 is generally additional connect Heat death for human-based climate change And Carbon emissionBut not specific events like Hot Spale of the previous week. A 2023 study in Nature therapy It was estimated that since 2015, the temperature in Europe for every degree Celsius rises, there are additional 18,547 summer heat deaths.
Studies such as Wednesday are “finishing the game of estimating the loss of health due to continuous burning of fossil fuels,” Dr. Dr. Dr. Visconsin’s Director of Health, Energy and Environment Research Center at the University of Wisconsin. Jonathan Patz said. He was not part of the research, but said that “the most updated climate and health methods were combined and found that every part of warming cases about excessive heat waves.”
A Canadian emergency room doctor and President of Global Climate and Health Alliance, Dr. Courtney Howard said, “Such studies help us see that reducing the use of fossil fuels is health care.”
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Seth Borenstein, Associated Press
